05/16/2011, 00.00
INDIA – NEPAL
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Three quarters of Himalayan glaciers shrinking, but not disappearing by 2035

A 15-year study indicates that grim predications are not warranted, but raises concerns. Nepali scientists warn glacial lakes are expanding, posing a threat to human settlements in case of earthquakes.
Bangalore (AsiaNews/Agencies) – A study by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has revealed that 75 per cent of Himalayan glaciers are on the retreat, with the average shrinkage being 3.75 kilometres during the 15 years under study. The project, which looked at 2,190 glaciers, was commissioned by the Ministry of Environment and Forests to collect scientific evidence to dispel the myths about the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers. A report released in 2007 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had suggested that Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035.

The research did not confirm the grim findings of the IPCC but it does raise concerns. “I can't say we are in a comfortable position because you can see that 75 per cent of the glaciers have retreated. Only 8 per cent have advanced and 17 per cent are stable," said Dr Ajai, group director, Marine, Geo and Planetary Science Group (MPSG), Space Applications Centre, Ahmadabad. “We are going to publish the data soon, probably in the Current Science journal”

Experts physically visited the glaciers to compare their findings to satellite data. “Many Himalayan glaciers are still in a healthy condition. They will not disappear. And the cause for retreat of these glaciers is not only high temperatures," Dr Ajai explained.

The present study included the basins of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra, as well as parts of China, Nepal, Bhutan and Pakistan.

However, Nepali researchers have sounded another alarm bell. Glacial lakes in the Hindu-Kush-Himalayas region could pose a major hazard to population centres if they are ruptured by earthquakes, the scientists warn.

Experts believe that, based on past records, a large quake in the region is overdue. When the last earthquakes hit the region, there were barely any glacial lakes in the Himalaya region.

A recent report on Nepal's glaciers said their average area had increased by 33 per cent.

"The main reason why we have not yet witnessed the outburst of glacial lakes because of earthquakes is because the region has not been hit by big ones in recent decades," says Mr Kumar of the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology. "And when the last earthquakes hit the region, there were barely any glacial lakes in the Himalaya region."

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