Caucasus

Moscow is particularly important for Azerbaijan’s non-oil exports, whilst Armenia remains its main trading partner and a major tourist destination. Supplies of wheat and fuel are essential for the Georgian market.

Relations between Moscow’s eastern neighbours remain largely in limbo, as they seek to reduce their dependence without severing ties with Russia for good. Meanwhile, in Bishkek, Xi Jinping has, yet again, rejected Putin’s call to unblock the ‘Power of Siberia 2’ gas pipeline project.

On the anniversary of the 2008 Five-Day War, Russia has renewed its offer of “mediation” regarding Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The parties have limited political channels, but trade and transport links are fully operational. The leadership of the Georgian Dream party is aiming to rebuild bridges.

In addition to Russia, Armenia’s prime minister is looking to China and India to boost the country’s development. New Delhi plays an important role in military-industrial and security matters. China is looking for Armenian raw materials. In the background, ties with the European Union (along with the United States) remain the primary political objective.

The start of operations at Demirli, an open-pit mine under Azerbaijani control since the 2020 war against Armenia, has turned copper into one of the country's main non-oil exports, aided by the growing global demand for metals associated with the energy transition.

An ancient collection of bronze cups dating back over 2,600 years has been discovered at Karmir Blur. These extraordinary artefacts are linked to the ancient kingdom of Urartu, which is believed to correspond to the biblical Mount Ararat. These ancient dynasties are regarded by the Armenian people as part of their national identity.

In response to a message of congratulations marking the 250th anniversary of the United States, the White House expressed its hope for “significant progress” in relations with Tbilisi. But after negotiations on EU accession were put on hold, Prime Minister Kobakhidze is now also looking towards Xi Jinping’s China.

On Sunday, the Israeli cabinet approved a proposal for formal recognition of the genocide, which now goes before the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, for a vote. This has sparked criticism in Turkey and Azerbaijan. For Armenians, it is a political move that reflects current tensions and conflicts. For Kegham Balian, an activist with “Save The ArQ,” Israel’s action is an "insult to the memory" of the 1.5 million murdered by the Ottoman Empire.

The electorate’s pro-European choice in the 7 June vote was accompanied by the election of the largest number of pro-Russian MPs since 2018. Putin nevertheless aims to influence the prime minister’s policies, with whom he maintains open channels of communication. And the polls themselves suggest that Armenians do not want the partnership with Brussels to be at Moscow’s expense.

The Middle Corridor is reshaping the region’s geopolitical landscape, offering participating countries a historic opportunity to free themselves once and for all from their role as ‘transit appendages’ to Moscow and become independent players.

The vote on 7 June in Yerevan is set to resolve the turbulent domestic political situation, either ushering in a new phase oriented towards Europe or bringing the country back under Russian control, whilst seeking to avert civil war between the various factions of the Armenian people. Meanwhile, the current Prime Minister Pashinyan has indicated that he intends to meet Putin immediately after the vote.

At the recent European summit in Armenia, attended by Zelenskyy and marked by a clear desire to strengthen relations with the European Union, Putin responded by warning Armenia not to follow in Ukraine’s footsteps. These are weighty words in a country preparing to go to the polls on 7 June for extremely sensitive parliamentary elections.