作者 Willy Wo-Lap Lam

中国国家主席面对「地区行政人员的反对」: 严重的失业问题可能导致街头抗议。习近平在武装部队中的偏袒和「清洗」是军官们不满的原因。知识分子被对言论自由的「激烈控制」激怒了。经济恐慌破坏了习近平在中国资产阶级中的受欢迎程度。

香港 (亚洲新闻) - 中国「最高领导人」的权力，没有受到美国总统唐纳德·特朗普攻击所挑战, 而是受到国内越来越多敌人的挑战。对邓小平、地区行政长官、军队和知识分子政策，怀旧情绪越来越高涨, 人们对习近平采取的政府选择感到不满。这一点是香港中文大学执教的林和立教授的观点。他是多本关于中国书籍的作者。以下是他分析的第一部份。文章由Jamestown Foundation提供。

It is perhaps with the goal of pacifying major party clans who still favor Deng-style reform that Xi convened a grandiose late-November meeting in Beijing to commemorate the 120th birthday of the late state president Liu Shaoqi (RFA, November 26, 2018). While Liu perished in 1968 due to Mao Zedong's persecution, he and Deng were close comrades-in-arms in pushing forward market-oriented liberalization. In Xi's eulogy of close to 7,000 characters, the Liu-Deng connection was not mentioned. Nor did Xi highlight Liu's struggles with Mao regarding whether the CCP should introduce a fully state-dominated economy in the 1950s and early 1960s. Xi instead dwelled mainly on Liu's moral qualities as a Communist Party member, including his view that all party members should unquestioningly follow instructions from the zhongyang (中央) or top party leadership (Wenweipo.com [Hong Kong], November 24; People's Daily, November 23). It is instructive to compare Xi's address with that of ex-president Hu Jintao at the celebration of Liu's 110th birthday in 2008. In his speech, Hu noted that the “major contradiction” in society is not ideological conflict but “people's demand for the speedy development of the economy and culture.” Hu cited Liu as urging that the state must “fully make use of the free market and to use the law of prices to regulate production” (People's Daily, November 12, 2008). It is therefore doubtful whether Xi's celebration of Liu's contributions could win him the support of Deng's followers.                 

Xi is also facing opposition from regional administrators who fear the trade war's potential to exacerbate unemployment. Serious employment problems could translate into street protests, which would adversely affect local-level cadres' chances for promotion.Some analysts believe that Xi's unpopularity among regional officials could be one reason why he has decided not to convene the Fourth Plenum of the Central Committee this year (Apple Daily, November 5).

A November plenum to discuss the Sino-US trade was has been widely anticipated, but a good proportion of the Central Committee's 204 full members and 176 alternate members are senior cadres from the provinces and cities (Hong Kong Economic Times, October 22;  HK01.com, October 16).