Youth unemployment drops in China by removing working students from data
The National Bureau of Statistics has resumed publishing data after suspending their release in the summer. The drop from 21.3 to 14.9 per cent is linked only to the removal of job-seeking students from the total. Meanwhile, last year’s 5.2 per cent growth in GDP trumpeted by Premier Li Qiang does not convince the markets.
Beijing (AsiaNews/Agencies) – After suspending the release of youth unemployment figures last summer, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) resumed publishing the data, reporting a drop from 21.3 to 14.9 per cent in just six months.
The NBS today released data for this major economic indicator, which highlights the country's critical economic situation, along with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2023, 5.2 per cent, which Chinese Premier Li Qiang cited yesterday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, up from 3 per cent last year.
The gains in employment among those aged 16 to 24 is, in fact, an accounting trick rather than real progress. As the English edition of the Global Times, a semi-official tabloid, explains, the only thing that has really changed is how the figures are calculated.
To make it more "reliable", the NBS removed students looking for a job while studying. Since “The main task of students is to study at the campus rather than finding part-time jobs,” writes the Global Times, “If they are included, the index could not accurately reflect the country's unemployment situation of those really needing full-time jobs.”
The real rate of youth unemployment will thus be shown in the coming months since the NBS has started to release data again.
According to China’s Ministry of Education, a record 11.79 million students are expected to graduate in 2024, about 210,000 more than last year, increasing faster than the demand for skilled labour.
Meanwhile, the GDP grew around 5.2 per cent in 2023, in line with the 5 per cent target set by the authorities, still the worst result for China’s economy since 1990, except during the two years of pandemic.
This explains the subdued market reaction. Despite Li Qiang's reassurances to investors about the strength of the Chinese economy, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell by 3.71 per cent today, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index were down by 2.09 and 2.54 per cent respectively.
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