Vietnam, coffee production falls. Global supplies at risk
The country ranks second in the world in terms of production, but next year's harvests are also expected to decline. Raw material is scarce and stocks of the Robusta quality are on the verge of halving. On the other hand, the export value is on the rise: from EUR 2.24 billion in 2020 to over three billion last year.
Ho Chi Minh City (AsiaNews) - The drop in production that has been underway for some time in what is the world's second largest supplier of coffee, and which is expected to worsen next year, threatens to put a global crisis in a trade already marked by product shortages due to lower harvests and reduced reserves.
Vietnamese producers are warning of one of the biggest product shortages in recent times. And if the coffee stored is going to be halved in the next few weeks compared to the usual quantities, the price of Robusta quality, the main one destined for export, has already reached record levels.
The reduced availability is affected by the 17% increase in exports between January and July compared to the same period in 2021, necessary to guarantee an essential supply on the global market and prevent prices from overheating further.
The world's second largest producer after Brazil and firmly in the top five for coffee exports, in contrast to other strong producers, Vietnam has a large domestic market, which - with a per capita annual consumption estimated by the World Bank at 0.5 kilograms - in 2021 absorbed around 10% of its entire production of 700-800 thousand tonnes. This quantity has grown dramatically over time, from 6 thousand tonnes produced in 1975 to 1,650 thousand in 2016, with a fluctuating result in subsequent periods.
While production has seen a substantial downsizing, partly offset by the strong appreciation of Robusta quality, the value of exports has continued its run, rising from EUR 2.24 billion in value in 2020 to over three billion last year. A figure equivalent to 10% of the entire agricultural export and 3% of Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP).
However, the placing on the market of 30.2 million bags for the year 2020-2021, down 3.5% on the previous trade year, was better than expected due to a reduction in production and exports from other producing countries. A situation that is in any case unsustainable in a difficult global situation due to climate conditions, high transport costs and economic difficulties, which threatens to scale back the prospects indicated last year by the Vietnam Coffee - Cocoa Association, according to which coffee marketing would reach 5-6 billion in value by 2030 under the slogan 'productivity, quality, added value'.
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13/09/2005
24/02/2024 13:55
