Under the shadow of prison and execution Iranians vote to choose a new president
On 28 June, the country will go to the polls to choose the successor to Raisi, who died in a helicopter accident on 19 May. Six names are in the running, five of them exponents of the ultra-conservative wing. The hijab among the campaign themes, because none of the candidates has a real recipe for the economic crisis. Abstentionism risk. Repression campaign continues, Christians also in the crosshairs.
Milan (AsiaNews) - In the presidential elections on June 28, in view of which the authorities in Tehran have imposed a further crackdown with executions and arrests that does not even spare Christians, experts believe a three-way game is being played between the most accredited candidates: they are the Speaker of Parliament (Majles) Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and MP Massoud Pezeshkian.
The first two are exponents of the ultra-conservative wing linked to the supreme guide, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to whom they pledge blind obedience, while the third comes from the reformist wing and wants to play the role of 'outsider'. One of these three, in all likelihood, will succeed Ebrahim Raisi who died last 19 May in the crash of his helicopter under circumstances that are not entirely clear, although the hypothesis of a failure of a long-lived and poorly maintained aircraft prevails.
Analysts and observers already consider three other ultra-conservative candidates to be out of the presidential game: Amir Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani and former Justice Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi. In recent days, the Council of the Guardians of the Constitution - which also admitted only male candidates for this election round - rejected yet another attempt to return former President Mahmud Ahmadinejad.
Also out of the running was Ali Larijani, a three-time Speaker of Parliament with a religious and conservative background. The rejection shows how marginal the options are, with the exception of the representatives of the radical and extremist faction linked to the supreme leader, so much so that the real winner should be the party of abstentionism this time as well.
The hijab and vote
With such a choice - and only six admitted out of 80 - the elections are unlikely to generate too much interest for Iranians in a game already decided by Khamenei. In the last elections in 2021, which marked the rise of Raisi, the Council had approved only seven names out of more than 500 nominations, but by the time of the vote three others had withdrawn, submitting only four names on the ballot papers.
The ultraconservative MP Amir Hossein Sabeti released the results of a poll by a government agency - the surveys are the prerogative of the State and often covered by secrecy - according to which Jalili would have 23% of the votes, while his rival Ghalibaf 21% and Pezeshkian 13%.
The figure on abstentionism is much higher: a 'homemade' survey by journalist Maryam Shokrani on social media shows that 88% of respondents on Instagram (out of 3374 votes) and 73.99% on X (out of 6433 profiles) do not intend to go to the polls.
A symbolic survey, but one that confirms Iranians' lack of interest in voting while the government arrests journalists and pressurises the media to report on a participatory election, while blocking articles or editorials in which the principle of competition or support of an individual emerges. In this regard, even the Pasdaran would express - at least on paper - a position of neutrality.
One of the issues at the centre of the debate, since no one has a defined programme to try to counter the crisis linked (also) to Western sanctions for the atomic programme, was that of the hijab: for Saeed Jalili, it is a social advantage and should be vigorously defended, because 'women's clothing is part of their security and their peaceful presence in society'; Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi also supports the compulsory headscarf regulations; former Interior Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi reiterates 'the importance of compliance with the law'; Alireza Zakani has displayed placards and banners in Tehran on the hijab, which he calls a "moral, legal and religious duty"; for Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the headscarf laws are a "significant success" in his term of office; the only voice out of the chorus is that of Masoud Pezeshkian, who extols the role of women and freedom of choice, as well as a reduced presence of the morality police.
Jalili is seen by many as a boring hardline Islamist ideologue with no executive experience. The favourite would appear to be 62-year-old Qalibaf, with close ties to the Pasdaran and praised - albeit without mentioning it - in a public speech last week by Khamenei.
However, many remember how as a general of the Guardians he took part in the violent crackdown on university students in 1999 and allegedly ordered the opening of fire on students in 2003. An exception to the hardliners is Pezeshkian, MP for Tabriz: relatively moderate, he has little chance of winning if turnout is very low, but he could win the votes of many otherwise reluctant voters who want to challenge the hardliners.
Prisons and executions
The weeks leading up to the vote were characterised by a wave of repression involving executions and convictions, an established practice in the Islamic Republic where (Shia) Islam is the state religion. Because, in spite of their attempt to give a veneer of legitimacy to the electoral process, the ayatollahs seem more concerned with quelling possible protests or stemming rifts between factions.
In the last period alone, eight prisoners have been executed for various offences, while judges continue to use capital punishment as a coercive tool: among those who may be in the hands of the executioner is Sunni cleric and political prisoner Mohammad Khezrnejad, sentenced to death for 'involvement' in the 2022 protests, triggered by the killing of 22-year-old Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini at the hands of the morality police because she was not wearing her hijab properly.
Updated figures from the Human Rights Council report that Iran is responsible for 75 per cent of global executions, first in the world among nations that provide official statistics because China, Vietnam and North Korea oppose state secrecy.
In response, inmates in some prisons have been on hunger strike every Tuesday for the past five months. Moreover, it is the numbers that confirm the escalation: according to Amnesty International, the Islamic Republic has reached its peak of executions in the last eight years, executing 853 people in 2023. The report indicates that 481 executions, more than half, were related to drug offences with an 89% increase over 2022 when 255 people were sent to the gallows for drug trafficking or drug addiction. And a 264% increase over 2021, when 132 were executed.
(Even) Christians in the spotlight
The widespread recourse to executioners is not the only critical element in a framework of growing fracture between the theocratic leadership and the universe of youth (and university students), who insistently demand rights and freedom.
A repression that also affects Christians, as shown by the case of the Armenian Hakop Gochumyan in prison since the summer and recently sentenced to 10 years in prison. The 35-year-old was sentenced for "proselytising activities" defined as "deviant", which "contradicts the sacred law of Islam" and for belonging to and leading "a network of evangelical Christianity".
In fact, the court relied on his possession of seven volumes of the Gospel in Farsi and his visit to two Armenian churches and a house church while on holiday in Iran. It also made extensive use of Article 160 of the Criminal Code, which allows judges to use their 'personal intuition' in the absence of evidence.
The verdict was delivered by Magistrate Iman Afshari of Tehran's Revolutionary Court, who is gaining fame as a persecutor of Christians: in addition to the young Armenian, three others received 10-year sentences; one defendant received a two-year sentence; five were banned from leaving Iran and living in Tehran for two years; all ten were fined ,000 and deprived of basic rights such as membership in political or social groups.
Moreover, an Iranian Christian convert from Islam who had been in prison for months was sentenced on 28 May by the court in Ahvaz, in the west, to five years in prison for acting "against national security" by communicating with "Christian 'Zionist' organisations".
The 37-year-old Esmaeil Narimanpour had already been forced into religious 're-education' courses and is part of a group of 50 people imprisoned over the Christmas holidays. His house in Dezful, 150 km north of Ahvaz, was searched and books related to the Christian religion confiscated, although the agents had no search warrant. He was transferred to a detention centre of the Ministry of Intelligence in Ahvaz, where he spent 18 days before being locked up in Shiban.
Finally, last week came confirmation of the arrest of convert Farrokh Kakaei who was detained in an undisclosed location, much to the concern of his wife and two daughters who have not heard from the 55-year-old since his detention on 26 May.
Four plainclothes intelligence men took him from his home without formal charges and confiscated pictures of Jesus, his computer, mobile phone and an external memory card. Like him, at least 14 Iranian Christians have been arrested this year, but most remain shrouded in secrecy.
According to up-to-date data from Article18, a website specialising in documenting ongoing repression against religious minorities, 15 Christians have already been sentenced to prison for faith-related offences in 2024; of these, at least seven have already begun serving their sentences and a dozen others will be tried by the end of the month, all on charges related to the peaceful practice of their faith disguised as crimes against 'national security'.
GATEWAY TO THE EAST IS THE ASIANEWS NEWSLETTER DEDICATED TO MIDDLE EAST. TO RECEIVE A WEEKLY UPDATE EVERY TUESDAY, CLICK HERE.
.png)
