by Dario Salvi

The death toll now exceeds 24,000. In Antakya, where people are making desperate appeals after losing everything, the first cases of looting are reported. Small signs of hope appear in Iskenderun, as aid arrives and power is partially restored. The earthquake is already a battleground between Erdogan and his rivals ahead of the upcoming 14 May presidential elections, now in doubt.

Milan (AsiaNews) – The situation in Antakya (Antioch) is heartbreaking; the ground continues to shake and much of the city lies in ruin. Desperate pleas come from survivors who lost everything.

Those who have not been able to shelter with relatives or friends are still in the streets, many in pyjamas, shoeless, waiting for aid that has not yet arrived. Shops and banks have been destroyed. Reports of looting have begun to get through.

Same thing in Iskenderun (Alexandretta), where survivors are still in shock and fear. Those who found shelter with the parish of the Cathedral of the Annunciation are mourning their dead.

Yet, there are some glimmers of hope. The statues of Our Lady and Saint Anthony of Padua remained standing, untouched. In the port, a Spanish naval ship docked with humanitarian aid; electrical power is back on, allowing the use of electric stoves to prepare hundreds of hot meals.

Speaking from the areas most affected by Monday’s earthquake, people told AsiaNews harrowing stories about a quake that has already killed more than 24,000 people in Turkey and neighbouring Syria.

While rescuers are still busy digging through the rubble in search of the last survivors or recovering more bodies, the 14 May presidential and parliamentary elections are shaping up to be about President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Ankara-Istanbul divide, and anti-quake funds.

The elections no longer seem to be a sure thing in a country that will likely have to tackle a critical situation for a long time, as well as plan for an expected trying period of reconstruction.

The earthquake that struck on 6 February 2023 was the most devastating since 1939 in terms of duration and intensity. Yet, many experts and ordinary Turks wonder whether the tragedy could somehow have been avoided, or at least contained, especially in terms of human losses.

Fingers are pointing directly at the government and President Erdogan himself, held partly responsible for not preparing the country and not upgrading buildings in accordance with the latest safety and anti-quake measures.

Critics are asking whether funds earmarked for earthquake prevention ended up in the pockets of businesses and companies hired to build major infrastructures and utilities.

A few days ago, President Erdogan acknowledged shortcomings with the country’s Disaster and Emergency Management Agency (AFAD)[*], but appeared to blame fate. “Such things have always happened. It's part of destiny's plan,” he is quoted as saying.

The earthquake hit 10 of the country's 81 provinces and some areas, from small villages to large cities like Antakya, remained isolated for days without aid.

After the 1999 earthquake, Turkey’s Armed Forces were tasked with major emergencies; however, following the failed coup of 2016, Erdogan progressively curbed the power of the military purging its top leadership. Civil defence was turned over to civilian experts and some 20,000 volunteers who proved inadequate in the face of a disaster of huge magnitude.

For years, experts had warned of a potential quake, although few could imagine that it would hit along the fault line that crosses eastern Anatolia.

For now, critics are slamming the government for failing to build built new buildings or renovate old ones using solid anti-seismic criteria.

After 20 years in power, Erdogan has not "prepared the country for the earthquakes,” said Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP)[†] in a blistering attack.

The big question is what happened to all the funds raised through two "earthquake solidarity taxes" established after the 1999 quake, especially since the government has failed to account for the money.

What is more, over the years, the government has granted amnesty to hundreds of thousands of  violations of the building code, some in the cities and provinces brought to their knees by this week’s earthquake.

“The amnesty played an important role in the collapse of the buildings in the latest earthquake," said Pelin Pinar Giritlioğlu of Istanbul University.

The country’s fault lines are not only geological. Politically, Turkey is deeply fragmented and polarised, and at times of devastating tragedies has not been able to find a minimum “unity and solidarity", as Erdogan himself called for.

One example is the president’s use of religion for political and propaganda purposes, as was the case with his controversial decision to restore Hagia Sophia and Chora, two former Christian basilicas in Istanbul, for use as mosques.

The government’s response to the quake – mostly affecting cities where the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP)[‡] is in the majority – has been to block Internet and social media, accuse the opposition, impose a state of emergency, further crack down on media, and restrict information while appealing for cohesion.

Even before the earthquake, Turkey’s economy was in a free fall with high inflation and social unrest, with Syrian, Iranian, Afghan, Iraqi and Palestinian refugees treated as scapegoats.

Turkish journalist Deniz Yücel, who spent a year in jail for criticising the establishment, wrote from exile in Germany that the aftermath of the 1999 Turkish earthquake helped propel Mr Erdogan to power.

Now, the disaster earlier this week could also play a crucial role in the upcoming vote, provided it is held as scheduled on 14 May. Indeed, it might bring to an end the era of Turkey’s strongman.

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[*] Afet ve Acil Durum Yönetimi Başkanlığı.

[†] Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi.

[‡] Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi.

• turkey
• syria
• earthquake
• erdogan
• elections
• criticism
• shortcomings
• polarisation