by Mathias Hariyadi

According to recent studies the Asian country will soon have a budget of trillions of dollars. By 2021 national GDP of will exceed that of Russia and the country will be among the major consumers of goods and products. Government advisor: "Infrastructure and human resources key to development". But some experts urge caution: "Reforms are unfinished".

Jakarta (AsiaNews) - Rich in natural resources and with a huge potential, Indonesia for many analysts and experts is expected to grow and become one of the locomotives of the third millennium in the global economy.

Recently US based IHS Global Insight academics said that within the next two years, Jakarta will be the next Asian economy with a trillion dollar budget (that is counted in trillionsKey to this vigorous growth is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which will double by 2023 (source IHS) to touch $ 2 trillion. And it is expected to touch 3 thousand a few years later, in 2028.

The Indonesian GDP is expected to exceed that of Russia by 2021 and, with the strengthening of the middle class, will become the largest consumer of goods and products among Asean countries (a group that brings together 10 States of the South-East Asia).

However, in spite of the optimistic research results, the national economy is still characterized by lights and shadows; as some experts explain to AsiaNews, optimism studies have emerged in the past, although in practice these studies have not been confirmed in terms of growth and development.

According to economist Agustinus Prasetyantoko, from the Catholic University of Atma Jaya (Jakarta), the optimistic forecasts contained in the IHS Global Insight report "are not the first of its kind". Some years ago, the expert explains to AsiaNews, a similar document was released by McKensey Global Institute (Mgi) which had conducted a survey at the request of the then President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. "Also in the Mgi report - adds professor Catholic - Indonesia was seen as a future world power economically, thanks to its enormous potential."

Going beyond the economic potential, continues the researcher, the fact remains that Indonesia is the country in the world with the greatest potential in terms of natural wealth and resources. But in depth studies must go beyond numbers and statistics, warns Agustinus Prasetyantoko, to understand the real prospects for development. For there are programs and structural reforms, which often remain unfulfilled. Furthermore, he concludes, "equitable growth is much more important than a high growth rate".

The government, however, is more optimistic and aims to reach the goals outlined by the US study. "I am confident - says Sri Adiningsih, professor at the Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta and advisor to the government of President Joko" Jokowi "Widodo - and I believe that in the future our economy will grow even faster." If you look at the potential, she adds, it has all of the factors to "become a global economic power."

The professor promotes the policies of the executive that link the creation of new infrastructure and strengthening of human resources. "This promotes productivity – she concludes - and the country's competitiveness, to the benefit of industry and national economic potential."

Indonesia has a mixed economic system as it combines private and public sector investment. GDP is slightly less than a trillion dollars and estimates point to further growth in the near future. Low wages have encouraged economic growth and reduced unemployment, but have exacerbated social conflicts. The austerity policy of the government has allowed it to limit the public deficit and inflation. The service sector counts for 36.9% of the jobs market and industry 18.8%. The main industries include oil and natural gas, textiles, apparel, and mining sectors. The main agricultural products are palm oil, rice, tea, coffee, spices and rubber.

• INDONESIA
• economy
• GDP
• ASEAN
• growth
• rate
• policies
• consumer
• goods
• productivity