The war between Israel and Hamas animates jihad and threatens the stability of South-East Asia
As in the days of Isis, the conflict threatens to inflame the squares of Muslim-majority nations. With the exception of Thailand, the countries in the region close to the Palestinians and Gaza; thousands of people in the streets shouting 'Allah Akhbar'. The war in the Strip fought on Tik Tok with fake news and fake profiles.
Milan (AsiaNews) - From Jakarta to Kuala Lumpur, passing through the Philippines and Singapore with the sole exception of Thailand, the war launched by Israel in Gaza in response to the Hamas terrorist attack on 7 October is animating the people of the South-East Asian. In particular in nations where the Muslim component is the majority and there are consolidated relationships with the political and military leaders in the Strip and, more generally, closeness to the Palestinian cause.
The region is already experiencing the economic, humanitarian, political and human consequences of the new escalation in the Holy Land, which risks spreading to the entire Middle East and beyond. While at the Asean bloc level, the association that brings together 10 South-East Asian nations, no rifts seem to emerge so far, when examining the individual countries there are marked differences and the internal repercussions risk being very different. In particular, where radical and extremist movements operate which have already sown violence and terror in the past.
For this reason, yesterday Singapore announced that displaying or wearing symbols linked to the conflict between Israel and Hamas could result in prison (six months), a fine of 370 US dollars or both. The decision is based on the fact that war has an "emotional" element that can undermine the peace and unity of the nation.
The Palestinian cause on city streets
The latest demonstration took place at the weekend and was held in Indonesia, the most populous Muslim nation in the world, where over two million people gathered at the National Monument to demand an end to the bombings and the siege of Gaza. Among the nations - and governments - that have condemned the Israeli counteroffensive in Gaza, calling it disproportionate in terms of civilian casualties, there are Indonesia and Malaysia.
Asia has paid a notable toll in terms of human lives including deaths, injuries and kidnappings: hundreds of economic migrants and workers from the South-East and South of the continent, in fact, were involved in various capacities in the attack by Hamas and in the subsequent response of the Jewish State. So much so that in the vote held at the UN general assembly on 27 October, eight of the 10 ASEAN countries were in favor of the ceasefire resolution, the Philippines abstained and Cambodia was absent.
Over the last weekend, Islamic Friday prayers became a moment of protest and expression of solidarity with Gaza and the Palestinians. A thousand people marched through the streets of Kuala Lumpur, demanding an end to the killings; the demonstrators concluded the march near the US embassy in the Malaysian capital, contesting the coverage guaranteed so far by Washington for the military operation.
There was no shortage of chants for "Death to Israel, Allah Akhbar" with the Jewish State accused of having "stolen" the land from the Palestinians, the legitimate inhabitants. Similar scenes in the south of the Philippines, a Muslim-majority area in the only predominantly Catholic Asian nation, and in Indonesia where protesters gathered outside mosques and then joined a procession and headed towards the US embassy in Jakarta.
An exception is Thailand, a Buddhist majority nation which boasts its own diplomatic representation in Tel Aviv and has initiated a substantial economic and commercial exchange over time. It is no coincidence that dozens of the hostages in the hands of Hamas are Thai migrants, a nation that also mourns 24 deaths among the over 30 thousand migrants who left Thailand towards the Holy Land.
Jihadist escalation in the South-East
Israel's war in Gaza, like the escalation of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq in the summer of 2014, risks relaunching the fight of jihadist movements in the region, especially in Indonesia and the Philippines. Experts point out that the scenario of militiamen leaving for Gaza is minimal, but there is a much more "substantial" "threat" regarding the "reinvigoration" of terrorist networks, new attacks, radicalization and fundraising for militant groups.
The war in Gaza, especially in the event of a continuation of the ground invasion or a further escalation with the entry of Hezbollah from Lebanon, will serve as a catalyst for jihadist groups looking for a cause and a charismatic leader.
The pro-ISIS umbrella group Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) and the pro-al-Qaeda Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) have both been weakened by arrests, neutralizations and beheadings of their leadership. However, the rise of ISIS had relaunched its fight, which had found new life in the "Islamic caliphate" and in a very sophisticated social campaign.
Added to this is the fact that in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines (south) there is a widespread feeling of sympathy and closeness to the Palestinians and their cause, with a surprising approval rate for the Hamas movement itself, elsewhere considered a terrorist movement.
There are also fears that charitable organizations in Southeast Asia are being used to support Hamas and other militant groups, while in Indonesia security forces are already on high alert ahead of general elections in February 2024. Pro-Palestinian rallies are a recruitment and indoctrination opportunity to replenish the depleted ranks of Jad and JI.
Philippine security officials also fear that the war will revitalize terrorist networks in Mindanao and Sulu, thanks to prolonged military operations. In the three-year period 2016-2018, officials in Manila foiled Hamas preparations for attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets and in August 2017 arrested an Iraqi bomb disposal expert who had worked as a “consultant” for Hamas in Syria.
Gaza and fake news: the war on Tik Tok
Then there is a final factor and that is the war fought on social media through counterfeit profiles and fake news, useful for fueling biased propaganda. And which, in the South-East Asian region, sees the prevalence of the use of Tik Tok, a video sharing platform made in China which, more than other now outdated media (Facebook, Twitter or the most used in this Gaza conflict.
This was revealed in an in-depth analysis by Channel NewsAsia (Cna), which uncovered what it defines as "a flow of misleading content" on the conflict in the Middle East and which, if left unchecked, could have "dangerous repercussions" for Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore .
Although the proliferation of false or manipulated news in times of geopolitical tensions is not a new phenomenon - see the Russian war in Ukraine - that in Gaza takes on even more disturbing contours for South-East Asia, amplifying disinformation, propaganda and radical tendencies. An important aspect, the study observes, is also the fact that more and more young people use the platform to inform themselves or learn about news events and analysis.
And if, at first, the contents conveyed are those of the mainstream media, then there is a succession of profiles artfully created or linked to individuals or groups interested in conveying a biased "truth", which often uses footage from the past or decontextualized. One of the many objectives, explains Cna, is confessional propaganda to reinvigorate a common Islamic belonging.
However, even and above all in this case - the study concludes - censorship or content filtering is not useful or in any case is not the best means to combat fake news. Instead, we need to focus on fact-checking, verification and “prebunking” to ensure the most accurate information possible.
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