The second phase of the Indian elections and the fallout for Bangladesh
The former East Pakistan is watching the election process closely. Especially with regard to the presence of migrants, of Muslim faith, in India. For now, Dhaka is trying to maintain a certain balance between Delhi's pressure and Beijing's influence, explains Fr Sergio Targa, a Xaverian missionary in Bangladesh since 1992, now in Italy.
Milan (AsiaNews) - Today sees the second round of India's complex elections, which began on 19 April and will be completed on 1 June, with the results to be announced three days later.
It is an unrivalled exercise in democracy, the results of which are also awaited beyond national borders, especially in view of the repercussions that the post-election situation could have on the regional and global strategic level, even more so in a situation as complex as the current one, which presents a series of problems and challenges that have Islam at their centre.
Around 200 million Indians and millions more immigrants belong to this faith, mostly from former East Pakistan, which in 1971 became Bangladesh and today has a 91% Muslim population.
Relations between the two countries in the decades following independence have been affected mainly by two factors. The first, water management, particularly for the lower reaches of the Ganges and the Brahmaputra, of which New Delhi controls the 'taps'.
The two rivers contribute to Bangladesh's prosperity, but they also endanger its economy and population with the threat of sudden and devastating floods. The second factor is the demographic one, because immigration from overpopulated Bangladesh, portrayed by nationalist politics as an 'invasion', remains a source of tension in the north-eastern states of India that share its borders.
The approval of the new citizenship law by India, right in the election campaign, opened up the risk that millions of immigrants could be deported. During the first phase of the vote, inter-ethnic violence occurred in the states of Manipur and West Bengal.
A situation that the Bangladesh government is watching carefully. However, 'the tensions we are witnessing are unlikely to change relations between the two governments.
With regard to the citizenship law, Dhaka's position is to monitor the situation, unless the application starts a process of expulsion to Bangladesh, whose government does not intend to ride the 'religious card' like the pro-Hindu nationalists, who, on the contrary, emphasise the alleged difficulties posed by immigrants due to an alleged incompatibility of faith with the local Indian population,' explains Fr Sergio Targa, a Xaverian missionary in Bangladesh since 1992 after studying at the London School of Oriental and African Studies in London.
Today he works as General Procurator and holds various teaching positions.
For the time being, therefore, relations between the authorities in New Delhi and Dhaka are good. "There are similarities in the two current systems of government. The January elections in Bangladesh confirmed the autocratic power of PM Sheikh Hasina not unlike that of Narendra Modi in India. After having effectively silenced the opposition, she had to set up front parties to give herself an opposition and thus more democratic credentials. In this it is supported by India,' specified the missionary, a member of the Asian Studies Centre of the Xaverians, which is based in Japan.
India, which contributed militarily to the birth of Bangladesh and has strong strategic interests there, views the massive Chinese investment in the country with concern. But Dhaka continues to have Delhi as its main reference.
"The choice of Dhaka falls on India because it is surrounded by it and because its proximity in terms of history and population is obvious. Actually on the strategic level there is a constant search for balance. The growing proximity to China, for example, depends on the type of proposals China makes, such as infrastructure contracts,' he added. From the military point of view, Bangladesh depends primarily on India, but it has bought submarines from China."
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19/01/2007
