by Dario Salvi

For Iran, 2024 will be the year of the choice of the 88 members of one of the Islamic Republic's most important bodies, scheduled for 1 March. It will be up to them to appoint the supreme guide, in the event of the death (or resignation) of 84-year-old Ali Khamenei. The possible return to the scene of former President Rouhani and the challenge with Raisi. The rise of Mojtaba Khamenei, the ayatollah's son and long-time active behind the scenes.

Milan (AsiaNews) - Close discussions and behind-the-scenes negotiations have already begun, although the elections scheduled for March 1st are still a few months away, because much of the future of the Islamic Republic will depend on the outcome of the vote.

The choice of future members of the Assembly of Experts, one of the most important bodies in Iran, will in fact be fundamental in the probable appointment of the next supreme leader who will succeed the 84-year-old Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Although authoritative international institutions already hypothesized eight years ago that the outgoing assembly would elect the next leader, who remained firmly in command, it seems unlikely that Khamenei himself will be able to remain in office until 2032 although, according to some rumors, like his predecessor Ruhollah Khomeini wants to remain in power until his death.

The Assembly and the Ayatollah

The Assembly of Guiding Experts, or more simply Assembly of Experts, is made up of 88 members elected for a term of eight years, with the task among others of appointing the supreme guide although - in fact - he is subordinate to him.

In fact, the representatives, after having passed the checks of the Guardian Council of the Constitution, must be approved by the Grand Ayatollah himself, the highest office of the Islamic Republic, before officially being part of the body. For the pre-selection of candidates, the main criterion of choice should be linked to their "morality" from a "Muslim" perspective, then legal, political and social knowledge and experience.

However, as proven by the facts, it is a power game that concerns, in particular, the influence of the multiple theological schools on national politics.

The Mujtahids - at the first vote in 1982 there were 82, which increased to the current 88 in 2016, at the 5th election - are chosen according to a dry majority system and are required to meet for at least two days every six months under the current presidency of the 97-year-old Ahmad Jannati .

Established three years after the end of the Islamic revolution of 1979, with the rise to power of the ayatollahs after the expulsion of the shah, the assembly took office the following year and, although it enjoyed a certain authority, it never put question the stability or leadership of the supreme leader.

Indeed, during Khamenei's prolonged - and unchallenged - rule the body has been reduced to a ceremonial function without real decision-making power or control of the highest office.

So much so that the President of the Supreme Court Sadeq Larijani himself, very loyal to the leader, has ruled that it is illegal for the Assembly of Experts to supervise - much less censor - Khamenei's actions.

Within it there are six commissions and a presidential council (composed of the president, two vice-presidents, two secretaries and two assistants), appointed by secret vote and in office for two years.

After Khamenei

“The race to replace Khamenei has already begun and is very heated, and everything that has been seen in Iran in the last two years, and thereafter, must be analyzed in the context of the struggle and fight for the seat” of the guide supreme.

The statements, released on condition of anonymity, by a former senior Iranian conservative official to Middle East Eye (Mme) show the central point around which the election of the Assembly of Experts revolves, a prelude to the race for the most coveted and important office in the country. According to the latest information, at least 510 people have registered their names for the vote, which will take place on March 1st.

Around 52% of the candidates have participated in previous elections, while the remainder are running for the first time. In 2014, Khamenei warned Iranian authorities about “influences in the decision-making centers” of the Islamic Republic and attacked his opponents, saying: “They are [without naming names] waiting for the nation and the political system to fall asleep and in 10 years, when I am no longer alive, for example, they will achieve their goals."

The sensitivity of the supreme leader and his attempt to keep the assembly within his own circle led the Council of Guardians, responsible for vetting the candidates, to disqualify a large number of names, even prominent ones.

Among other things, the members of the Council are themselves chosen directly and indirectly by the leader. For example, Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, was excluded from the race in 2016.

Hassan, an elderly moderate cleric with close ties to reformists, has long supported reformist candidates in several elections. A source in the reformist camp reported that former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, also a member of the assembly, intended to support Khomeini and pave the way for him in the race for Khamenei's seat in the event of his death. A failed plan precisely for the opposition of the Council, which carried out the orders of the Supreme Leader.

Rouhani's return?

Among the candidates in the running are the former reformist president, Hassan Rouhani, and the current Ebrahim Raisi, both seeking a third mandate in the assembly. However, unlike Rouhani who is running in Tehran, it is not clear whether Raisi will also run in the capital, where he has low popularity.

Excluding the re-nomination of the president of the Jannati assembly, other possible prominent names include Tehran Friday prayer leader Ahmad Khatami, senior official Ahmad Araafi and Qom Hashem Friday prayer leader Hosseini Bushehri. Furthermore, the presence of Rouhani is not certain and he could be excluded from the games, as hypothesized by the political activist - of moderate conservative orientation - Mohammad Mohajeri, according to whom "it is foreseeable" that he will be "disqualified" because "the attacks against of him".

"A few evenings ago I was in a mosque in the Mahalati neighborhood [frequented by Pasdaran commanders] and a well-known fundamentalist preacher - he underlines - defined Rouhani as the worst, he does not have sufficient clerical knowledge and he clearly said that he is a British spy". I think, he concludes, that “disqualification is more than probable”.

Meanwhile, Ayatollah Mohsen Araki, a member of the assembly, recently stated that it is almost impossible for the body to elect a non-Iranian as leader, dismissing rumors of a possible candidacy of Hezbollah leader, the Lebanese Hassan Nasrallah.

On the other hand, a more realistic choice would be one that looks to Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has been very active in behind-the-scenes politics in Iran and has long been among the candidates for a place among the 88 to be assigned.

The game, going beyond the vote on March 1, is entirely in the succession of the ultra-octogenarian Khamenei, who would see the current president Raisi among the candidates, although his quotations appear increasingly low and many believe that he has very little chance of winning. get it right.

On the other hand, even if Rouhani is allowed to run, it is likely that after the 2024 elections he will not have any grassroots support for a rise to the highest state office.

GATEWAY TO THE EAST IS THE ASIANEWS NEWSLETTER DEDICATED TO MIDDLE EAST. TO RECEIVE A WEEKLY UPDATE EVERY TUESDAY, CLICK HERE.