Sri Lanka goes to the polls under India's watchful eye
The two candidates favoured in the polls hold opposite positions towards Sri Lanka’s Indian neighbour, sometimes seen as a cumbersome presence in the island nation’s domestic politics. India is worried instead about China’s growing influence, but, given the current environment in South Asia, it will likely work with whoever comes to power.
Colombo (AsiaNews) – Sri Lanka’s elections on 21 September will be watched closely in neighbouring India. The two countries are linked not only by geography and culture (ethnic Tamils live in both northern Sri Lanka and in Tamil Nadu, southern India), but also political and strategic issues.
China, in fact, has tried to expand its influence in the Indian Ocean, supporting the Rajapaksas and financing infrastructure projects like Colombo’s port, clashing with the commercial and financial plans of the Indian-based Adani group, which is linked to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Understandably, India has always preferred candidates hostile to China.
Out of 38 candidates running for the Office of the President, four are key to the vote: the incumbent president, Ranil Wickremesinghe, who took over after grassroot protests ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa; Namal Rajapaksa, a scion of the Rajapaksa clan, who is running for the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP); Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the candidate of the National People's Power (NPP) coalition; and Sajith Premadasa, of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB).
According to some observers, Dissanayake and Premadasa are the favourites, with Wickremesinghe trailing in third place.
Dissanayake, who leads the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, a pro-Chinese Marxist-inspired party that has only three seats in Parliament, has threatened to keep Indian fishermen away from the coasts of Sri Lanka and scrap renewable energy agreements signed with Adani (which would see the Indian conglomerate invest US$ 442 million to build two wind farms, with the company paid 8.26 cents per kilowatt-hours).
Premadasa leads a right-wing party, linked to the United National Party, which goes back to the 1950s, and is opposed to China’s presence in the region, defending Indian positions in local conflicts.
The SJB often cite the risks of the debt trap, while Premadasa is the only candidate who wants to see the implementation of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution, which provides for the decentralisation of administrative power to provincial councils on the basis of an agreement signed by India and Sri Lanka in 1987, but which has never been fully applied due to tensions between ethnic Tamils and Sinhalese.
The agreement allowed Indian peacekeepers to be stationed in Sri Lanka, but the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna still opposes this today, accusing India of interfering in the country’s affairs.
Unlike President Wickremesinghe, Premadasa seemingly wants a more balanced approach towards the various foreign powers with interests in Sri Lanka, including China and the United States.
In fact, Sri Lanka is part of a geopolitical context that is not particularly favourable to India at present after the change of government in Bangladesh (driven by youth protests, former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina took refuge in India), and growing anti-Indian sentiments elsewhere in the Indian Ocean such as the Maldives, where a pro-Chinese government has recently taken office and expelled Indian soldiers deployed to the country.
India seems to be aware of the international situation and, according to experts, it will work with whoever wins in the election. In February, India's Foreign Minister, S. Jaishankar, and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, welcomed Dissanayake to India for bilateral talks.
The main issue that worries Sri Lankans, however, is the economy and several candidates view favourably the economic rescue agreements worked out with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Dhananath Fernando, an economist at the Advocata Institute think tank in Colombo, explained that ethnic rivalries are likely to be put aside. The successful candidate will have to ensure that Sri Lanka gets its finances in order, starts repaying foreign creditors, attracts investment, and completes the IMF's four-year program.
“The main criticism of the government is that it has not shown enough sensitivity or empathy towards the pressing problem of debt restructuring and making sure that the burden of that adjustment is not going to fall on the people least able to bear it," said Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, an analyst with the Centre for Policy Alternatives, a think tank in Colombo.
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02/09/2022 17:59
05/12/2022 13:45
