Two women, both running as independents, are leading in the polls. Yuriko Koike, the incumbent governor, is backed by the Liberal Democratic Party, and Renho Saito, who enjoys the support of the Constitutional Democratic Party. While the ruling party is still facing criticism over recent scandals, the opposition does not seem sufficiently united. Tomorrow's vote could set the stage for next parliamentary elections.

Tokyo (AsiaNews/Agencies) – Tokyo’s gubernatorial election is set for tomorrow, a test that, according to local media, could be a prelude of what might happen in the next parliamentary elections scheduled for the autumn of 2025.

Two women are leading the polls out of 56 candidates running, many of the latter only looking for visibility.

The incumbent governor, Yuriko Koike, is seeking a third term as an independent but enjoys the support of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP); Renho Saito, commonly known only by her first name, a former television journalist, is supported by the Democratic Constitutional Party (CDP), the main opposition political party, and the Japanese Communist Party (JCP).

JCP backing has proven controversial for Renho, losing her the support of Rengo, one of Japan's largest but staunchly anti-communist unions.

Koike, 71, a former minister of defence and minister of the environment, was first elected governor in 2016, the first woman to hold that post. After managing the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 Olympics, she promised new measures in favour of families to counter the declining Tokyo’s birth rate, which stands at 0.99, the lowest among Japan’s 47 prefectures.

Renho, 56, said she wants to work with businesses to propose a better work-life balance so that Tokyo can be “a city where young people, regardless of their circumstances, can study, work, get married and have children, and have all these life choices.”

The city of Tokyo has a population of about 14 million with revenues of about 100 billion dollars, equal to that of some small European countries.

Renho was the first woman, in 2016, to become leader of the CDP. After leaving the party, she ran as an independent.

The daughter of a Japanese mother and a Taiwanese father, she got caught up in an uproar when she said that she had dual citizenship, this in a country that requires people to pick one before the age of 22.

Meanwhile, the LDP is embroiled in a series of scandals related to irregular fundraising by some party officials who belong to a faction that was led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

A victory by Koike, who is still ahead by about six percentage points in the latest poll, could boost the LDP, which will have to pick a new party secretary in the coming months.

At the end of September, the mandate of Fumio Kishida, the current prime minister, expires, while his approval rate in recent weeks has reached an all-time low of 20 per cent.

According to some analysts, the only chance the opposition has to defeat the LDP is to make a common front against the conservative party, a possibility that seems remote at present.

The CDP won three by-elections in April, taking all three seats from the LDP, backed by the Japan Innovation Party, the second largest opposition party after the CDP, which did not present any candidate in the Tokyo election.

Still, CDP leader Kenta Izumi has been criticised for not proposing economic policies that can gain public trust, limiting himself to attacking the ruling party. Like Kishida, Izumi could be replaced as party leader in September, a very likely prospect if Koike wins tomorrow.

Experts note that, despite the three by-election wins in April, support for the CDP hovers around 13 per cent nationally against 25 per cent for the LDP, while the undecided are around 35 per cent.

Things might change if a charismatic figure like Yoshihiko Noda comes back. Serving as prime minister for about a year before Shinzo Abe came to power, Noda enjoys broad support within the CDP.

A victory for Renho, on the other hand, could consolidate Izumi's position and even, according to some, help him become the next prime minister.

• japan
• tokyo
• gubernatiorial election
• yuriko koike
• renho saito
• liberal democratic party
• ldp
• democratic constitutional party
• cdp