Raisi’s death and its impact on Lebanon’s fragile situation

Iran’s president and foreign minister who died in a helicopter crash were among those responsible for Lebanon’s paralysis. In Beirut many believe that their death will not have any impact on the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel on the country’s southern border, nor on its presidential election. Things could be different if the incident was deliberate.

Beirut (AsiaNews) – Lebanon has officially proclaimed three days of mourning over the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in a helicopter crash while the Iranian embassy has opened a book of condolence.

Lebanon’s foreign minister went further saying that his Iranian counterpart was "a friend of Lebanon". However, among public opinion and the parties representing Christians and Sunnis, the two men will not be regretted, since they are part, like Hezbollah, of the extreme right-wing camp that has "taken Lebanon hostage" and engaged it in fighting with Israel since 8 October.

This camp has been accused of taking advantage of the failure of Lebanon’s parliament to elect a president since in October 2022, locking down parliament and preventing Arab, French, and American mediation.

Raisi's death will not matter either way, according to these circles; instead, they fear that the Islamic Republic will take a harder line. To measure the impact, if any, on Lebanon of this serious incident, it is first necessary to establish the possible consequences of the deaths in Iran itself.

In fact, the fallout from the crash will be felt more at the level of the supreme leader than the presidency. Ultra-right-wing Ebrahim Raisi was slated to succeed the current guide, 85-year-old Ali Khamenei.

His death thus creates a vacuum, and could sharpen the contradictions within the Iranian system, exacerbating the conflict between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (Pasdaran), the regime’s radical wing, and “religious” reformers.

In Beirut, it is believed that hard-liners hold Iran with an iron fist, and that the helicopter crash will only strengthen it.

Accident or attack?

In addition to possible internal rivalries over Khamenei's succession, many in Beirut think that it will be necessary to follow the developments of the investigation into the cause of the crash.

On this subject, sources close to Hezbollah say, on condition of anonymity, that "what happened remains quite unclear.”

Iranian authorities blame so far the accident on fog, defective electronic equipment in an old helicopter, and slow rescue operations.

“If these are the facts, the regime can be expected to continue operating without changes," the sources say.

"However, some do not exclude the possibility that it was not an accident, that someone wanted to eliminate Raisa from the race for supreme leader." The crash could therefore be the result of an internal conspiracy.

Finally, there is the idea, deemed "plausible" in certain East European diplomatic circles in Lebanon, that Israel was behind the crash. It may be just a theory, but several factors argue in its favour.

First, the presidential helicopter was the only one of the three aircrafts in the presidential convoy to crash; second, Israeli Minister of Defence, Yoav Gallant, made threats, saying that the skies over the Middle East are "open" to the Israeli Air Force, which can “hit it (the enemy) wherever they are" (16 April); three, the proximity of Azerbaijan, a state with which Israel has close military relations and from where the helicopter came, after the inauguration of a dam.

This, of course, is the most serious theory, one that could trigger a dreadful regional war. But, even if this version of events was established, Iranians could choose to keep it secret, to preserve their assets, according to the circles mentioned above.

The speed with which the supreme leader said, upon hearing the news of the crash, that there will be no power vacuum, could be explained, according to the source cited above, by the desire to prevent any blunder.