Pandemic in Shanghai reshuffles political dynamics ahead of Party Congress
Seen as a favourite to replace Premier Li Keqiang, Li Qiang, communist boss in Shanghai and Xi Jinping’s ally, is under attack for his handling of the COVID-19 outbreak. If the health crisis spreads, turmoil might follow with serious economic repercussions. A weakened Xi will have to give room to factions that oppose him.
Beijing (AsiaNews) – In Shanghai the COVID-19 pandemic will have political repercussions that will impact the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), scheduled for next fall.
Until the metropolis of 26 million was hit by a major outbreak, the position of Chinese President Xi Jinping seemed unassailable, but now it seems weakening.
Along with the victory against extreme poverty, Xi would like to claim victory over COVID-19, which he hastily announced in mid-2020.
Perhaps now he’ll have to review his approach since the coronavirus cannot be defeated by rhetoric, and its persistence threatens his (controversial) achievements in the fight against poverty.
COVID-19’s first major political victim is Shanghai’s communist party secretary Li Qiang, a Xi ally touted as Premier Li Keqiang's probable successor.
The coronavirus outbreak in the country's commercial and financial capital seemingly irked Xi, causing the automatic fall from grace of his now former protege.
As Nikkei Asia notes, Li Qiang's “demotion” was visible when Deputy Premier Sun Chunlan was sent to Shanghai with Xi's marching orders to relieve local leaders of their duties.
Sun is in charge of the national anti-COVID-19 campaign, but within the CPC hierarchy she is equal to Li Qiang, since both are members of the Politburo.
Shanghai, which accounts for 95 per cent of new cases, is set remain in lockdown until the end of April. However, various observers note that the draconian approach to eradicating the coronavirus could trigger a humanitarian crisis in the city.
Already local authorities are struggling to hand out food to the population. The first videos of protest against Xi's zero COVID policy have appeared on social media, while many experts view this strategy as too inflexible and impractical against the Omicron variant.
Chinese leaders fear that the outbreak in Shanghai could occur in other parts of the country, especially in rural areas, where the vaccination rate among senior citizens is lower and health services are often inadequate.
The economic impact must also be considered, since the lockdown affects production, logistics and consumption. According to Nomura, cited by the Financial Review, the 23 Chinese cities that are in total or partial lockdown represent 13.6 per cent of the country’s population and 22 per cent of its gross domestic product.
The combination of severe restrictions on people and economic problems could spark protests never seen before since the Tiananmen movement of 1989, a scenario that terrifies Xi.
The combination would be explosive and undermine his leadership, or at least weaken it, forcing him to hand over key government and party positions to people from other factions.
Most analysts believe that the choice of the new premier will indicate Xi’s level of influence after the Congress. With Li Qiang out and Xi weakened, Hu Chunhua could be the next premier.
A deputy premier and politburo member, he rose through the ranks of the Communist Youth League, and is member of a powerful party faction linked to former President Hu Jintao and Premier Li Keqiang, which has been marginalised by Xi in recent years.
Eventually Xi and his adversaries within the party might find a compromise candidate like Wang Yang, president of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, a body that sanctions decisions taken by the party.
Wang is not linked to any particular faction or specific leader; thus, he might be judged on the basis of his work.
The results of the fight against pandemic will weigh heavily on Xi's political future. Only more tragic news from the Ukraine war might have a greater impact on the post-20th Congress balance of power in China.
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27/10/2023 18:06
