Operation 1027: Arakan Army again opens hostilities in Rakhine against Myanmar’s military
The offensive launched by three militias in the north at the end of last month has generated a domino effect, resulting in some regular army troops surrendering. Taking advantage of the military’s weakness, the Arakan Army launched another attack in the state where the Rohingya live, while on the eastern border, China might opt for greater involvement in the civil war.
Yangon (AsiaNews) – After three ethnic militias launched Operation 1027 in Myanmar, another frontline has opened up in the western state of Rakhine, mainly controlled by the Arakan Army, with whom the Myanmar military had signed a fragile truce.
As Myanmar’s ruling military loses more and more ground, many commentators expect that China might decide to intervene more directly in the conflict to protect its interests.
At the end of October, the Brotherhood Alliance, a coalition of three militias – the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) – launched an attack in the northern part of the country against the military junta that ousted the previous government led by Aung San Suu Kyi in a coup d'état in February 2021.
Since then, the country has been plunged into a brutal civil war that has recently reached a turning point thanks to the cooperation of armed groups fighting against the junta.
The attacks coordinated by the three militias against military outposts, which began on October 27 (hence the name of the operation), were initially concentrated in the areas bordering China, where various illegal activities, including drug and human trafficking, are known to proliferate.
Last night, an army battalion surrendered to MNDAA forces near the town of Laukkai in the Kokang region, just 16 km from the nearest Chinese city. Laukkai has been the main theatre of fighting since the beginning of Operation 1027.
“We are guaranteeing the life and safety of those who have come into the light. We will also maintain and protect their human dignity and the dignity of the soldiers,” and their families, a militia spokesman said.
The offensive took the Myanmar’s military by surprise. The junta responded with a series of airstrikes, but several experts note that the military's difficulty in recapturing lost territory and bringing in reinforcements is probably a sign of a broader crisis.
“This is the weakest the Tatmadaw[*] has been since the coup,” a diplomat told Reuters on condition of anonymity, while others highlighted the domino effect the operation had for all militias, which had so far failed to plan a large-scale coordinated attack.
Perhaps this is why two days ago the Arakan Army decided to open a new front by ending the informal ceasefire that had been in force since November 2022. The militia recently reported that it had seized 40 outposts from junta forces in three districts in Rakhine, which has a substantial Rohingya Muslim population.
Here, too, civilians have been forced to flee or find cover in bomb shelters. Some residents in Sittwe, the capital, said that transport services were suspended due to airstrikes, stranding thousands of people trying to get out.
In Shan State, in the north, at least 50,000 people have been displaced, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said, in addition to another 40,000 internally displaced people in the Sagaing region and Kachin State.
In Loikaw, the capital of the eastern state of Kayah, two other army battalions, which were stationed at the local university, surrendered and were taken prisoner by the Karenni Nationalities Defence Forces, another ethnic militia fighting the military regime.
Some experts note that the new military advances, especially those on the border with China, could cause a hardening of Beijing's positions towards Myanmar’s generals.
Chinese authorities recently issued an arrest warrant against Ming Xuechen, a Kokang official supported by the junta believed to be responsible for illegal activities linked to online scams.
Young workers from China and other Southeast Asian countries are lured by fake job offers only to be imprisoned and forced to steal money from other victims via the Internet.
In recent months, China has intervened several times. Last month they arrested 11 Myanmar nationals from Kokang involved in this type of trafficking, including some people close to the head of the military junta, General Min Aung Hlaing.
Chinese authorities also issued arrest warrants against key people in Wa State, which is near Kokang, and is under the control of the United Wa State Army (UWSA).
Although China, together with Russia, is among the first suppliers of weapons to Myanmar’s Armed Forces, it has also financed the UWSA in recent years in an attempt to keep the situation on the border calm and continue doing business mainly related to infrastructure development in the Belt and Road Initiative megaproject.
However, in recent weeks, the Chinese have also accused several members of the local militia of being involved in illegal trafficking and it is likely, according to some observers, that they somehow approved Operation 1027, which, among its stated purposes, seeks to eradicate illegal trafficking along the border.
China is now at a crossroads and must “decide whether they want stability on their borders and stability for all the investment that they have put into Myanmar. They want someone in charge that they can manipulate, because military regimes have always been ones that they can manipulate,” said Miemie Winn Byrd, an expert at the Asia-Pacific Centre for Security Studies, speaking to the Voice of America,
“Under the military regime, Myanmar has been sold out to China a lot more, and China has gained a lot more than it was ever able to do in the civilian government. But now China has to make the decision: Do we want stability, or do we want the manipulation? You can manipulate the bad governance, but then you don't have the stability, and all the investment that you put into the area is at risk.”
[*] Tatmadaw (tatma.taw, 'Grand Army').
.png)
