Lebanon, the next battleground in the Islamist war for a world Caliphate
Beirut (AsiaNews) - Overnight, Lebanese soldiers freed seven members of the security forces held in the town of Arsal, near the border with Syria, scene in the past few days of violent clashes between the military and Islamist ISIS militias. Today a cease-fire came into forces thanks to mediation by local Muslim leaders. A Red Cross convoy reached the town to take out the wounded.
A situation of relative calm now prevails but some fighters might be left in the city. At least 17 soldiers, 50 Islamist fighters and 12 civilians were killed during the clashes, which lasted five days and ended last night - with a final gunfight that lasted 90 minutes - followed by the Islamists pulling out.
Arsal's brief capture by Islamist is the first time Syria's civil war between Islamists and the al-Assad regime spilled over into Lebanese territory.
As Lebanon's army chief calls for international assistance to avert Islamist threats, France and Saudi Arabia are speeding up the delivery of US$ 3 billion in military hardware to Lebanon.
What follows is an analysis by the deputy editor of Lebanon's French language daily L'Orient-Le Jour:
Since last Saturday, 2 August, Lebanon's national army and various jihadist groups - especially the al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State (formerly Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, ISIS) - have been fighting on Lebanon's eastern border.
The battle was centred on the Sunni village of Arsal, which is located near the Qalamun Mountains. For months, it has been disputed between Hizbollah with Syrian backing, and Takfiri Islamist rebels.
For Islamists, the city is strategically important as a base for supplies and a place for its wounded; now more than ever since they lost ground elsewhere.
And it is all the more important because it is a place where nearly 150,000 Syrian refugees have found shelter, a mass of people that is a perfect hiding place for the fighters.
The battle was triggered by jihadists themselves, who last Saturday took to the city's streets, taking hostage a dozen members of the Internal Security Forces present at the time of the attack.
They also executed people who tried to defend the security forces and opened fire at army positions around the city.
During the first three days of fighting, the Lebanese military suffered heavy casualties: 15 dead, 20 missing and more than 90 wounded.
The new frontline seems to have opened up after Imad Jomaa, an al-Nusra Front leader, was arrested at a Lebanese army checkpoint, which set fire to the powder keg. Jomaa heads the Liwa fajr el-Islam brigade operating in Homs, later joining the al-Nusra Front and then the Islamic state.
For Lebanese Armed Forces Chief General Jean Kahwagi, the insurgents were bound to carry out their plan sooner or later, and what the army did was to trigger it ahead of time, a questionable statement given the fact that Jihadists benefitted from the surprise factor and inflicted heavy losses on the troops but also because many had already appealed in vain to the army to block the border in that particular sector.
Suffice it to say that fighting broke out in the fields around Arsal, which then continued in the city, which fell under Jihadist control. The town itself lies in a valley, surrounded by mountains at every point, including on the Lebanese side.
On Sunday, the army launched a counteroffensive to take the heights overlooking the town and some valleys that lead towards it, from Syria.
However, their mission was not easy because the jihadists do not fight to hold positions, but a carry out guerrilla attacks and have shown a very high level of professionalism.
In addition, Islamist militias seem to be in large number, thousands of fighters and more even though they have neither the armoured vehicles nor the firepower of the Lebanese army.
The Lebanese military were unable to move into the city because of the large number of civilians. In fact, after a first mass exodus, jihadists blocked the way out of Arsal. They prevented residents from escaping by opening fire on those who refused to obey their orders and, in some cases, burning their cars. A scorched earth strategy was not an option for the military, unless civilians were taken hostage. Artillery hit only a few outposts, on the outskirts of the city itself.
A group of Lebanese Salafist sheikhs and ulema embarked on a peace mission, leaving a small window of opportunity for a political rather than military solution to the crisis, although chances of success are slim, partly because of divisions between groups that control Arsal.
In addition, the military - backed by a firm statement of the government - is not unwilling to make any compromise with ISIS or the al-Nusra Front.
In 2007, in Nahr el-Bared (north of Tripoli) and in 2013 in Abra (east of Sidon), it crushed Islamist uprisings in bloodshed. On 4 August Prime Minister Tammam Salam's cabinet unanimously confirmed its no compromise stance on terrorism.
Fighting on the border has led to tensions elsewhere in Lebanon, especially in areas with Sunni majority. In Tripoli, gunmen opened fire yesterday on a troop transport lorry, wounding eight, including an officer who was seriously injured. However, the incident had no consequences and life in the city continued as usual.
Among political leaders, the incident is deemed of "vital importance" in light of the crimes committed by the Islamic State in all the territories it control, particularly in Mosul, where Christians have been expelled.
The group is seen as a tool for broad population exchange, aimed at creating ethnically and religiously homogeneous regions, something that denies Lebanon's rich pluralism, whose irreplaceable value the Arab world is just beginning to discover.
Meanwhile, diplomatic circles are closely monitoring events in Arsal, a litmus test for the war in the Arab world between Shia and Sunni camps.
"After Syria and Iraq, will it be Lebanon's turn?" Such a question is on everyone's lips in Lebanon. Until recently, civilians felt the country had special protection. Now they are wondering whether this is a passing phase or an open front that will last? Some pieces are still missing to know for sure.
Similarly, the Lebanese are again wondering what political price they will have to pay for their security, especially in light of what is happening with the presidency.
Pro-Iran circles criticise Saudi Arabia for failing to provide the armed forces new equipment worth US$ 3 billion. Other observers wonder what government and which president should get those weapons in a country that is still deeply divided between the pro-Western 14 March movement and the pro-Syria and pro-Iran 8 March coalition whose irreconcilable differences have prevented the election of a president in the past two months.
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18/10/2010
