Kazakhstan, crossroads of conflicts

Economic uncertainties are testing living and working conditions in several parts of Central Asia, which was the explicit cause of the protests two years ago. Moscow fears that the West wants to wrest Astana from Russian influence but Kazakhstan remains an active member of Eurasian military and economic alliances.

Astana (AsiaNews) - The multiplication of conflicts in many areas of the world presents an increasingly worrying scenario for the year that has just begun. There is fear of the opening of new fronts and the worsening of tensions that seemed dormant, as observed by analyst Vladimir Prokhvatilov, collaborator of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences on the ura.ru. website.

The areas most at risk, according to the expert, are the Middle East and Central Asia, and he reports widespread fears among Russian political leaders, according to whom "the West is preparing a coup d'état in Kazakhstan, to tear it away to Russian influence”. The January 2022 riots could be repeated, also according to Prokhvatilov "inspired by the USA and Great Britain".

Economic uncertainties are indeed testing living and working conditions in several areas of Central Asia, and this was the explicit cause of the protests two years ago, when the inhabitants of the Kazakh cities of Žanaozen and Aktau, in western part of the republic, demonstrated against the sudden increase in liquid gas prices, involving other cities, especially the most populous metropolis Almaty.

Another expert on Kazakhstan, Professor Nurlan Munbaev, member of the New York Academy of Sciences and the Astana Foundation for Parliamentarism, believes that it is difficult to hypothesize a new internal conflict in the country today, “it depends on many internal and external factors , from the development of democratic institutions and civil society, but also from relations with Russia and other countries".

However, there are some points to highlight, remembering that Kazakhstan is Russia's main partner in Central Asia and an active member of Eurasian military and economic alliances such as the CSTO and the EAES, ties that are not easy to break or even weaken.

The politics of Akorda, the palace of President Kasym-Žomart Tokaev, tries to maintain a "multi-vector" line with neighboring countries, with the main Asian powers and also with the West. The reforms for the democratization and modernization of the country are struggling to produce concrete results in all Central Asian countries, but they represent needs that are deeply felt by the local populations. According to Munbaev, a destabilizing intervention by the Westerners is very unlikely, because it would risk making all the efforts made in recent years in vain.

Another observer, the political scientist Egor Kuroptev, director of the Free Russia foundation in the Southern Caucasus, believes that "the Kremlin has an interest in increasing tensions, spreading anxiety and fears throughout Russia, indicating new enemies to deal with, when the majority of the population is exhausted by the climate of war and mobilization".

He does not believe that Westerners have any interest in meddling in the internal affairs of Kazakhstan or other countries in the region, while "he will do everything to promote the democratic course" in them. The warnings spread by Moscow, Kuroptev believes, are "standard tools of propaganda and manipulation, which the Putin regime uses to maintain its status and power."

Condemning the "war plans of the West", the plots to overthrow the existing regimes or seize territories and economic resources, are usually the premises with which Russia justifies its "defensive invasions", recalls the political scientist, what could take place in Kazakhstan as a consequence of the “freezing of the Ukrainian conflict”.