Israeli election: Divided Arab parties might help Netanyahu
The decision by some Arab parties to run alone might give the former prime minister an edge in Israel’s upcoming election. Turnout among Israeli Arabs might prove crucial one way or the other. However, Israeli Arabs are dissatisfied and surveys indicate that only 40 per cent plan to vote.
Milan (AsiaNews) – Amid great uncertainties, Israel’s Arab electorate will play a crucial role in the country’s upcoming election on 1st November, the fifth in three and a half years.
Unlike the recent past, Arab parties will not run united; the latest split came a few days ago – and this is likely to spark different reactions among voters.
According to some observers, this will lead to greater internal competition, as well as different and even contrasting electoral approaches and strategies.
The result could be a double-edged sword. On the one hand, Arab voters might be motivated to go to the polls, with a large turnout like in the last election; on the other, some might be turned off and stay at home with disastrous electoral results and negative political implications.
This could pave the way for former Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu to make the umpteenth comeback, a master at building his success on the divisions among his rivals.
Parties and top candidates
The deadline to submit party lists for the 25th general election to the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, was last week.
Parties include the right-wing Likud led by former Prime Minister Netanyahu, which once again is running for the prime minister’s office; whether he gets the top spot in the government will depend on the results and horse-trading among allies.
In the political centre, we find the secular oriented Yesh Atid party of incumbent Prime Minister Yair Lapid who succeeded Naftali Bennett on 1 July in accordance with a rotation agreement. Bennett, a former Yamina party leader, is not running this time.
The National Unity Party, which includes the Blue White movement, is led by Benny Gantz and Gideon Sa'ar. The far-right Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party, founded in 1998, is led by Itamar Ben-Gvir.
The socially conservative religious camp includes Yitzchak Goldknopf’s United Torah Judaism, and the ultra-Orthodox Shas, under Arye Dery.
Also on the right, which has dominated Israel’s political landscape for a long time, we find Avigdor Lieberman’s Israel Beiteinu, while Habayit Hayehudi (Jewish Home) is an extreme right-wing religious Zionist party led by Ayelet Shaked.
The reformist camp includes Merav Michaeli's Israeli Labour Party and, further to the left, Zehava Galon's Meretz party.
Lastly, Arab parties, which are more fragmented than in the last election, include Ta'al, Hadash of Ayman Odeh, the United Arab List (Ra’am) of Mansour Abbas, the wild card in the last elections, and Balad of Sami Abu Shehadeh, a left-leaning Arab nationalist party,
The (dis)united Arab front
Unlike the 2021 election, Arab parties have failed to present themselves united to voters, many of whom are dissatisfied if not disillusioned, which could lead to a low turnout .
The Joint List , which united four ideologically different parties (communism, nationalism political Islam), won 15 seats in 2020, thanks to a high voter turnout among Israeli Arabs (65 per cent).
However, in the March 2021 election it won only six seats after one of its members, Abbas's conservative Ra'am (close to the Muslim Brotherhood ), joined the coalition government led by Bennett-Lapid, ousting the hitherto unsinkable Netanyahu.
However, the new governing coalition was only held together by opposition to the former prime minister, then on trial for corruption, and was unable to withstand the first shocks, thus forcing the country to vote again.
With Arab parties clearly split, the influence of Israeli Arabs in Israeli society and political institutions will likely diminish.
The Arab nationalist Balad party will run alone, and so if it fails to meet the 3 per cent threshold, it won’t elect any MKs, and its votes will be wasted.
The latest surveys indicate that intra-Arab divisions are likely to result in a low turnout among Israeli Arabs, one in five Israeli, with some projections suggesting that only 40 per cent will cast their ballot. This will certainly get Netanyahu and his alliance of right-wing, ultra-nationalist and religious Jews back into power.
An uncertain future
For some observers, if turnout among Israeli Arabs drops below 55 per cent, Bibi’s success is almost certain.
Conversely, a high turnout combined with divided Arab parties might pave the way for centre and centre-left parties to work together, ending once and for all the Netanyahu era, who has made several comebacks in the past and has played a central role in Israel’s political life for the last quarter-century and more.
Balad’s leader Sami Abou Shahadeh accuses the other two Arab parties (Hadash and Ta'al) of abandoning him a few hours before the deadline to submit electoral lists.
Israeli Arabs have close family ties to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, and identify largely with their cause, leading them to be viewed with suspicion by many Israeli Jews.
Nevertheless, Israeli Arabs have achieved considerable gains in recent decades in healthcare and many other fields, but they still experience widespread discrimination. The latest polls suggest a direct fight between Netanyahu and Lapid.
This time too, the Arab vote could make a difference. Yet, should the various alliances fail again, a sixth election is more than likely.
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31/05/2021 14:44
30/03/2023 21:25
