Iraq’s first census in 27 years, an ‘important' step for the future, says Salloum
On 20-21 November, a curfew will be imposed in all provinces to facilitate data collection. The last census occurred in 1997, while those that followed were postponed or cancelled due to violence and domestic conflicts. For Iraqi scholar, census data will inform policy making in a country shaped by sectarian and confessional divisions.
Milan (AsiaNews) – Iraq will hold its first census in 27 years, a period during which the country went through some of the most tragic events that have marked the recent history of the Middle East: the US war to depose then dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003, the US occupation, the civil war between various factions, and the mad jihadi invasion by the Islamic State bringing death and devastation.
Given this background, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani announced a curfew for the census collection on 20-21 November in every Iraqi province, a step that will be crucial for the country’s future.
An “important” step
Saad Salloum, a journalist and associate professor of political science at al-Mustanṣiriyya University in Baghdad, one of the capital’s most prestigious establishments of higher learning, spoke to AsiaNews about the census, stressing that it is an important step towards establishing a certain balance in the country, essential in a country where sectarian and confessional divisions have shaped political life and fuelled tensions and conflicts.
"Of course it is very important that Iraq can finally carry out a comprehensive census of the population, for the first time in 27 years,” Prof Salloum said. After all, “the government and the international community have no idea about the demographic weight and distribution of the Iraqi population.”
Various programmes and initiatives in multiple sectors depend on this information, from education and the economy (investments) to the relative balance of power among the country’s political parties, religious groups, regions, etc.
“It is essential to known the distribution and number of young people, women, children," as well as labour and employment levels, education.
Once collected, the data will shape public policies, and how political parties and government agencies will organise the next election, which must be held within four years, “with a new generation that will vote,” with the numbers having “a growing impact on the choices of young people."
The last census was held in 1997 in 15 provinces, the three provinces that constitute the autonomous Kurdistan region did not take part.
Preparations for the census were discussed at a meeting chaired by Prime Minister Al-Sudani, finalising logistics and staff training.
Wars and internal conflicts
In the past, the census was customarily carried out every 10 years, but after the 1997 census, each attempt to do another was prevented by conflicts and fighting over certain areas, especially in 2010.
In a fractious country like Iraq, the census is a complex and delicate exercise, whose outcome will determine the distribution of power, indirectly setting sectarian and ethnic quotas based on demographic size.
It will also play a significant role in the ongoing conflict between the federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) over demographic affiliations in disputed regions such as oil-rich Kirkuk, which is at the centre of a bitter dispute.
To prepare the census, Iraqi authorities signed a memorandum of understanding with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in July.
The UN agency stressed the importance of the initiative, stressing its “crucial role in equipping Iraq with accurate demographic information, facilitating effective policymaking, and promoting inclusive growth.”
For this reason, international organisations are providing support to the country, which has been able to find in recent years, albeit with difficulty, a certain stability after decades of conflict and sectarian violence.
For Iraq’s 43 million people, a slow process of renaissance is underway after IS’s devastation, as evinced by Pope Francis’s visit in March 2021, the pontiff's first apostolic journey since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Diaspora
For Salloum, the first Muslim to win the Zêd Foundation Award for Human Solidarity given to distinguished individuals in the field of the protection of rights and freedoms, a “majority vs minority" confrontation has existed for a long while.
There is “great uncertainty about the numbers, various parts and groups". The numbers we have today "do not correspond to the reality. For this reason, a new census is essential," he stressed.
It is crucial to have “a precise portrait of Turkmen, Christians, Arabs, Sunnis, Shias, Yazidis, and other groups," because it will determine "the very balance of power.” This concerns "political rights, parliament" in a country where “power is a matter of numbers.”
Lastly, the November census will be important to count Iraqis in the diaspora, those who fled abroad over the decades because of violence or to find new opportunities.
This is a significant issue for Iraq’s different communities, above all for the often persecuted Christian minority.
"All the factors at play are important," the scholar noted, "but one of the most discussed numbers is the actual number of Christians in the diaspora, who fled the country in recent years after civil wars, the war with Iran in the 1980s, the US invasion of 2003, and Daesh (Islamic State).
“Many of our people have left and now live outside the country. The number is so high that it we can speak almost of two populations, one inside and one outside Iraq. This is an element to be carefully evaluated to have a clear idea of how many millions of Iraqis have left their homeland.”
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