Indian elections: BJP ahead, but cannot rule alone

The victory of the alliance led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is taken for granted, but in large and populous states such as Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh it was neck-and-neck for key seats. Even within the opposition, led by the Congress, there has been a rise of regional and local parties. Card. Gracias to AsiaNews: ‘A politically aware vote’.

New Delhi (AsiaNews) - After several hours of election counting, the alliance of which Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party is a member, known as the National Democratic Alliance, NDA, continues to appear ahead of the opposition bloc, known as INDIA.

However, the lead of Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party, which is predicted not to exceed 300 seats, is much smaller than predicted by early exit polls yesterday after the polls closed on Saturday. If the forecast is confirmed, Modi will need a governing ally to stay in power.

‘As the counting progresses, there is one thing that is becoming increasingly clear: the Indian people have given up the divisive and hateful politics of some political parties, and have resoundingly opted for a more socially inclusive and politically transparent system of government,’ commented Fr Babu Joseph, former spokesperson of the Bishops' Conference of India.

‘The results are local, not a landslide victory by one party,’ the priest continued, referring to the BJP, which had predicted in the campaign that it would win 400 seats. ‘The results released so far put to rest all the exaggerations and anticipations predicted by the exit polls,’ which some analysts had pointed out yesterday were not particularly reliable.

The elections for the renewal of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament, began in mid-April and ended on 1 June. A majority of 272 seats is needed to govern. According to forecasts, the BJP is expected to get just over 240 seats, with coalition allies expected to get just over 50.

In Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state with the largest number of seats, considered a BJP stronghold, the Election Commission website gives a head-to-head between the ruling party and the opposition.

Even in Maharashtra, one of the main states of the Indian Union, a similar situation has been recorded. Trends in a state like Uttar Pradesh have often been repeated at the national level, experts point out.

‘I am happy that democracy is flourishing in India,’ Mumbai Cardinal Msgr. Oswald Gracias commented to AsiaNews. ‘It shows that people are politically aware and voting rightly. Whatever government comes to power, the Church will certainly cooperate,’ he added. ‘It gives us joy to think that the whole process took place in a peaceful and orderly manner, this shows that there will also be healthy opposition. I think this is good for the country, for democracy and for the future.’

‘We do not have the final results,’ the cardinal continued, ‘but it was a well-fought election even if it lasted a long time. But in the end it was worth it’. Moreover, the Church is ‘politically aware and conscious of the needs of the people and the needs of the country. I am happy that the turnout was quite good, although it could have been better, and that people took the elections seriously’. 

Voting took place in seven phases; each had a turnout of more than 60 per cent. Nearly 970 million citizens were called to vote in temperatures that hovered between 42 and 48 degrees, which prevented many people from leaving their homes.

The seats so far allocated to the opposition indicate a greater rise of the regional parties, rather than the Congress, which leads the INDIA coalition, with a total of about 220 seats.

In the 2019 elections, the BJP had managed to win more than 300 seats, rising to over 350 thanks to allies. This enabled it to pursue an agenda focused on Hindu ultranationalism. In contrast, the Congress party, which ruled for years after the country's independence and is now led by Rahul Gandhi, has gradually lost popularity due to corruption scandals and a lack of new and forward-looking proposals.