by CT Nilesh

Government decision to disinvest from public companies pushes up stocks and rupee. Car sales increase for the ninth month in a row. After declining in 2009, exports are expected to pick up. India’s industrial growth should increase by 9.1 per cent. China, India (Chindia) and Asia are set to lead recovery.

Mumbai (AsiaNews) – Several recent indicators suggest that India’s economy is recovering from its slowdown. The government announced a 10 per cent disinvestment in profit-making public companies. The reaction of the stock exchange was immediate and positive with the benchmark Sensex index closing near the 17 000-points level. Trade turned bullish within minutes of Home Minister Chidambaram announcing the cabinet decision to divest 10 per cent stake in all listed companies. The rupee also began appreciating and with no major bad news on the global front, liquidity is expected to pour into the market again.

“I think in India we are in a recovery phase,” Tata Group chairman Ratan Tata said. “Europe and the US will take longer”.

At the same time, Tata Motors is “looking at adapting the Nano car for introduction to the European market. That will take about two years,” he added.

Meanwhile at home, car sales soared 34 per cent in October, the fastest-ever growth in three years. According to figures released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufactures (SIAM), sales of passenger cars in the domestic market stood at 132 000 units in October against 99 052 units in the same month last year. The growth in October was the biggest percentage gain since February 2007 when it jumped 46.5 per cent. October is also the ninth straight month of growth in car sales.

The government expects growth in merchandise exports to enter positive territory by January. In fact, the latest data show a marked deceleration of the rate at which shipments have been shrinking consecutively over the last 12 months. Overall, export stood at US$ 12.5 billion in October, down 11.4 per cent from US4 14.1 billion in the same month a year ago.

The fall in exports has shown signs of slowing down in the last few months as Christmas orders from Western markets trickle in. If the current trend continues, export growth should be up by January.

Finally, there are signs of revival in air travel. Domestic traffic has emerged after a period of declining passenger numbers. October saw a 25 per cent increase with 3,970,000 passengers flying against 3,180,000 in the same month last year.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has already said that the government’s fiscal stimulus would be phased out the next fiscal year and the Reserve Bank of India is expected to tighten interest rate by then. However in September, India’s industrial growth of 9.1 per cent still lagged behind China’s 13.9 per cent.

Overall, China and India (Chindia) are surely leading the global recovery. The two Asian giants and other Asian members of APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) pledged to make the Asia-Pacific a cheaper, faster and easier region to do business in by 2015.

The Prime Minister of Singapore, Lee Hsien Loong, said, “The next few years’ growth will be slow world-wide but in the long term Asia will do well”.

The International Monetary Fund said last month that Asia would grow 2.75 per cent in 2009 and 5.75 per cent in 2010, far outpacing the West.

The growing middle class in China and India will have greater spending power amid greater urbanisation and demand for infrastructure.

Historically, the developed economies led recovery. This time, it is going to be the developing economies.

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