06/10/2024, 20.22
CHINA – EUROPEAN UNION
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Europe’s new parliament seen from Beijing

The semi-official newspaper Global Times rules out a change of course by Brussels in its (strained) relationship with Beijing. Ursula Von der Leyen's re-election would mean a hard-line with Xi. Decisions over e-vehicle tariffs, with Beijing threatening retaliation, are expected in coming days.

Beijing (AsiaNews/Agencies) – China’s Foreign Ministry did not hold its daily press briefing today because of the Drag Boat festival, postponing its reaction to this week-end’s elections to the European Parliament.

This does not mean that the results of the vote are not already being closely vetted in China. The clash with the European Union over trade policies, in fact, remains a dominant issue in Chinese foreign policy.

In a few days, the EU is expected to announce its decisions on the hot topic of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, with Beijing threatening retaliation.

It is no coincidence that last week, China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao declared in Spain that protectionist measures are not viable solutions but a "dangerous dead end".

“China,” he said, “is willing to discuss economic and trade issues with the European Union on an equal footing and to participate in fair competition, on the basis of expanded cooperation."

The question that is being asked in Beijing is: What effects will the results of yesterday's elections in Europe have on this dispute?

The Global Times, a semi-official English-language newspaper, published an article relaying the views of a number of Chinese political scientists, who tend to rule out major changes.

Despite far-right gains in France and Germany at the expense of French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz, the balance of power in the European Parliament seems to reconfirm the central role of the outgoing President of the European Commission Ursula Von der Leyen, a supporter of a hard line against Xi Jinping's China.

China’s main backer in the European Union, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban – who welcomed the Chinese president to Budapest a few weeks ago – suffered a major blow, while keeping the lead in terms of votes.

For the experts who spoke to the Global Times, the outcomes will have a significant impact on European policies on immigration, security, and environmental transition, “topics the public is mostly unsatisfied with and where the right-wing parties' policies gained points.”

On foreign policy, no major change should be expected. In fact, “The impact on EU-China relations will depend on a reshuffle of the European Union's top jobs later this year, and depends on whether the current problems in China-EU relations will be further exacerbated or properly addressed," said Prof Cui Hongjian, lecturer at the Academy of Regional and Global Government Studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University.

Growing conservatism in European politics will lead to more protectionism on economic and trade issues, with the EU likely to place more emphasis on its own internal affairs and prioritise national interests in the future.

By contrast, for Cui, the result of the US presidential election will exert greater influence on EU-China ties than Europe’s parliamentary elections.

It should also be noted that relations with Beijing will be one of the main issues on the agenda of the G7 summit of heads of state and government scheduled for 13 to 15 June in Italy.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whose party gained in yesterday's vote, is expected to travel to Beijing in July for a visit, which will be closely monitored by international observers, after Italy decided to drop out of the Belt and Road Initiative, while still maintaining a strong trade partnership with China.

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