Iran's presidential campaign ends tomorrow. Many ordinary Iranians speak of a people 'resigned'. Experts explain obstacles on reforms' path: the great power of the Mullahs and the lack of a strong and well-organised progressive opposition.

Tehran (AsiaNews) – One almost certain result from Iran's upcoming presidential election is that the turnout will be low. In fact, candidates and outgoing President Mohammad Khatami are making a last ditch attempt to get the vote out before the campaign officially comes to a close tomorrow morning. The second almost certain result is that frontrunner Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani will win.

Most Iranian voters, who are very young, have had little trust and interest in the campaign, convinced that voting won't change their present situation of oppression and restrictions.

Many ordinary Iranians and international experts with local contacts agree that the mood among the people is one of 'resignation'.

Speaking to AsiaNews, a local source, who preferred to remain anonymous, said that "the population is aware that voting is useless. The Guardian Council will continue to rule." (The 12-member Council has veto power over laws passed by the Majlis or parliament and plays an influential role in the country's economy).

The current hopelessness is born of past experience. "The hopes raised by Khatami were thwarted," the same anonymous source said. "When he was elected in 1997, people were willing to take to the streets to force change, but the president was unable to do anything and now no one believes in this democracy".

With half of Iran's 67 million people under the age of 25, candidates geared their campaign focusing on the young voters. However, the "latter are not very interested in the country's political situation. A Western lifestyle is more attractive whether it is movies, TV, consumer goods . . .".

In general, people "put up with the Mullahs with a varying degree of hostility," so much as that no one expects things to change. And change is even less likely since there is no progressive movement that could lead the country.

 "One can only speak of political figures and movements that are more or less moderate," one expert said. The country has no real, organised opposition.

"Public opinion is muzzled by censorship and the population is too young to have a strong and decisive attitude. No explosion is likely on the short run, but one cannot exclude that something might happen sooner or later—the trigger might be external. The core of Iran's organised opposition is abroad," the expert explained.

The latest opinion polls suggest that former President Rafsanjani (elected twice in 1989 and 1997), Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and reformer Mostafa Moin will come out on top. However, no candidate is expected to win 50 per cent in the first round. This will mean that for the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic a run-off election will take place on July 1.

The new president will be elected for a four-year mandate, but real power will still be vested in the post of Supreme Leader, currently occupied by the ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is commander of the armed forces and overall powerbroker on most political issues.

In a public meeting today, Khamenei said that "Friday the population will show its faith in the constitution of the Islamic Republic and its unchangeable articles". (MA)

• iran
• presidential
• elections
• islam
• reforms
• democracy
• june
• 17
• mullahs
• Islamic
• revolution