Despite devaluation, sanctions and recession, Russians are preparing for the New Year
Moscow (AsiaNews) - Russian President Vladimir Putin has cancelled his ministers' vacation plans so that they can work on the country's crisis. In fact, the ruble continues to slide whilst inflation is rising.
Novi God (New Year) is Russia's most popular festivity. This year's celebrations come against the backdrop of the Ukrainian crisis, Western sanctions and the rapid devaluation of the ruble, which has led many Russians to cancel the traditional year-end holidays abroad.
Next year promises to be a tough year. Real incomes are expected to fall for the first time since Vladimir Putin returned to the Kremlin. Ordinary Russians are facing recession for the first time in six years with the economy expected to contract by at least 4 per cent and inflation between 12 and 15 per cent.
Yet, Russians are not giving in. As reported by various papers, most Russians are planning to celebrate the festivities at home and save money but they have no intention of giving up the fun or their champanskoe (Russian sparkling wine).
Despite the crisis, the president's approval ratings remain high. This has confounded expectations among diplomatic circles, even in Europe, that Russia's economy would collapse and lead to regime change.
The 'longest' celebration
Russia will be on holiday between 1 and 12 January. Government offices and schools will be closed between the New Year and Orthodox Christmas, which falls on 7 January according to the Julian calendar.
Hit by lower oil prices, Western sanctions, and a ruble that has lost half of its value, Russia's economy is expected to be in a recession next year.
Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev told government ministers that he expects them to keep the situation under control during the holidays.
Polls indicate that 96 per cent of Russians will spend the holidays at home but will still celebrate the festivity in style with lots of food and drink. This is the highest proportion since 1997.
When Russia's economy hit bottom in 1998, the proportion of people planning to celebrate was 89 per cent.
This year, 72 per cent of Russians expect to celebrate Orthodox Christmas, but only 10 per cent said they would go to church for the occasion.
The 'Crimea consensus'
The potential for protests in the country is expected to grow in 2015 because of the economic crisis. Yet, despite the crisis, popular support for President Putin has increased rather than decline. Nezavisimaya Gazeta calls it the "Russian paradox". For analysts, there is no contradiction.
At the start of 2014, the president's approval rating stood at 63 per cent. By December, it reached 85 per cent. For the Levada Center, an independent Russian non-governmental research organisation, Crimea has created a consensus with Putin at the centre of Russian politics.
Most Russians do not see or believe in any alternative; for them, the viability of the Russian state depends on Putin's success. According to Levada experts, television has played a fundamental role in consolidating this consensus.
However, surveys indicate a slight increase in the country's potential for protest, albeit without a loss of confidence in the government.
About 24 per cent of Russians believe that protests are possible in their region over worsening living standards or in favour of protection of their rights. In August and September, the proportion was around 17 per cent.
The number of those who believe in the possibility of political protests has dropped instead, from 23 per cent in February to 9 per cent in December.
For Dmitry Abzalov, from the Centre for Strategic Communications, Crimea's annexation has led Russian society to close ranks.
When Russia was hit by major economic crises in the past - in 2008-2009 and 1998 - protest activities rose in response to the country's deteriorating economic situation.
For Abzalov, whether social protests occur will depend on the real situation in the economy and important factors like unemployment.
According to Russian online news site newsru.com, foreign observers fail to see Russians' "surprising union" with Putin "when they speculate about the impact of the economic recession" and sanctions on Putin's hold on power.
Ordinary Russians might blame the country's current situation on the government or on "external factors," i.e. its Western enemies, but their criticism is never directed at the president.
For some, this will be tested by the court case against of Aleksei Navalny, set to begin on 15 January.
The blogger and anti-Putin politician says he is the victim of judicial persecution over his alleged involvement in the Yves Rocher affair. The prosecution has asked for nine years in prison for embezzlement.
If he is convicted, his supporters plan to take to the streets. However, support for him on social networks could be blocked.
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02/01/2023 13:29
