Data on China's economic growth incomplete
The elevated official GDP estimates do not take into account factors like environmental pollution and a lack of social services, for example, health care.
Beijing (AsiaNews/SCMP) China's high economic growth rates should be reviewed to take into account factors like environmental pollution, wastage of resources, and also social costs like public health. Only then, say experts, will the data be more credible.
The National Bureau of Statistics has revised China's economic growth for 2004, now estimated at 10.1% compared to the previous 9.5%. This data was disseminated on 9 January, after the results of an economic census published a month ago, which recorded the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2004 as 15.99 trillion yuan, higher than the preceding estimate of 13.69 trillion. This growth, due to improved evaluation of the originally underestimated tertiary sector, makes China the sixth largest economy in the world, surpassing Italy. The Bureau also reviewed data covering the period 1993 2003, adjusting the average growth to 10% instead of 9.5%.
However, the review is not of any major consequence for the government's macroeconomic policies, since it confirms already noted economic growth, says Ha Jiming, chief economist of China International Capital. Given that growth has been found to be higher, "there is a stronger need for measures to contain it".
But others have criticized the data, held to err on the side of being excessive. Prof. Li Yining, an economist at the University of Beijing, said a real evaluation should take into account also natural and social costs of development.
In recent years, China has suffered very severe environmental deterioration and accidents at work are frequent. The government has tried to introduce a "green" GDP index, which will consider and deduct costs related to environmental pollution, wastage of resources and social costs like public health and security from growth figures.
"It is necessary to extend the scope of the 'green' GDP to include economic losses sustained by accidents at work, food security, health services, construction and transport works and related costs," added Li.
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