China's 'second half' in the global economy
The implications of Trump’s trade war are being vetted in Beijing. For sociologist Sun Liping, it is time “to overcome the obsession with a production-oriented model of society” and instead increase “domestic consumption”.
Milan (AsiaNews/Agencies) – The move with which Donald Trump last night rolled back for 90 days additional tariffs imposed on scores of countries, while carrying out and even raising to 125 per cent those for China, has clearly highlighted Washington's priority in its ongoing offensive to corner Beijing, and then possibly negotiate but from a position of strength.
As might have been expected, China is responding blow for blow. This suggests that the fight will be long, with Southeast Asian countries, among others, left out in the cold, starting with Vietnam, which has pursued what has been dubbed the "bamboo policy", i.e. adapt to situations to gain as many advantages possible from both Washington and Beijing.
Xi Jinping is expected in Hanoi as early as next week, on a trip that will also take him to Kuala Lumpur and Phnom Penh.
Now, one of the crucial questions is how far can China go today? A question that has elicited reflections all over the world. An interesting prospect is the debate that is also developing within China’s academic world, in the shadow of the official positions and editorials by state media.
A series of interesting analyses, for example, have been published recently by Sun Liping, a well-known Chinese sociologist who teaches at Tsinghua University in Beijing, very attentive to the transformations of the economy. On WeChat, a Chinese instant messaging social media, he has often expressed liberal opinions about social and political issues.
In recent days he has tried to explain the causes that - from Washington's point of view - lie behind Trump's tariffs and his bet on the reindustrialisation of America.
He developed his most interesting observations in an article in which he analyses the internal dynamics of China’s economy, stressing the need for a sort of "second entry" of China into the global trade system.
For Sun Liping, China must use the current crisis to make a new qualitative leap in its economic structure as it did after joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001.
This should allow China to overcome the current contradiction of being the "world’s great factory” without proportionately increasing domestic consumption in a country of 1.4 billion people.
The Chinese sociologist acknowledges that the global market has been building up “an imbalance that the United States cannot bear. Some people today argue that because the United States is now bucking the tide of globalisation, we (China) should hold high the banner of liberal trade and become its leader.”
This “is a good idea," Sun Liping notes, “but as long as we take a long-term view. Because in the current era of overcapacity, it is difficult for a large manufacturing country to hold this flag high if it does not also become a large consumer country.”
After all, this is the direction in which the Chinese government itself is going at present, with economic stimulus measures announced just a few weeks ago in its budget, which was already taking into account the coming storm. But for Sun Liping much more is needed.
“It is some of our basic thoughts that need to change," he writes. “And the first is to overcome the obsession with a production-oriented model of society. We have achieved a goal, to become world leaders in manufacturing, but we have to make sure that the economy turns thanks to our consumption. In the end, this should be the purpose of our development.”
Finally, in his analysis, the Chinese sociologist also warns against the great myth of today's China, i.e. the race for primacy in technology. For Sun Liping it is obviously an important factor, but it must be placed "in the right place" because alone it is not enough to make an economic system strong.
"Our technological progress and the industrial modernisation it favours," he observes, "have so far not brought benefits to ordinary people in terms of increased employment and wage growth.”
Overcoming this critical situation is today a “fundamental issue" for tomorrow's China.
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