Beirut caught between Israel's hammer and Hezbollah's (and Tehran) anvil

France warns Lebanon (and the pro-Iranian Shiite movement) against a simmering war that threatens to sink the country. But Hezbollah will not allow an Israeli invasion of Gaza "without reacting". For the Lebanese, the inhuman terrorism of Hamas has fed on the blind policy of the Israeli right wing that uses force, despises the law, and practices apartheid.

Beirut (AsiaNews) - Awaiting a diplomatic solution or a devastating military escalation, caught between the Israeli hammer and the Hezbollah rock, Lebanon is holding its breath these days awaiting its fate.

The essential thing for Hezbollah is to "keep its intentions vague" says journalist and expert Qassem Qassir. However, the pro-Iranian Shiite movement "will not let Israel invade Gaza without reacting" he adds with conviction. And, in this case, "the military doctrine will prevail - he concludes - of the unity of the so-called anti-Israeli 'fronts'".

A statement to this effect came yesterday evening from Tehran's Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdollahian. “The deadline for a political solution is approaching,” he underlined, “and the possibility of an extension of the war seems increasingly inevitable.”

Whether escalation or diplomacy, Hezbollah's main objective is first and foremost to act as a deterrent. In this sense, the militant group aims to keep almost 300 thousand elements of the Israeli army mobilized on the northern front. However, by sending two aircraft carriers to the eastern Mediterranean, the United States is also sending a signal, making it clear that it is also present as a dissuasive force that everyone must take into account. A double deterrent that looks a lot like a policy increasingly on the edge of the precipice.

Tension has increased to such a point that yesterday Canada invited its citizens in Lebanon to "consider leaving the country", at least as long as commercial flights remain available before a blockade of connections.

On the ground

Since October 7, military operations in Lebanon have been limited to artillery exchanges in areas almost entirely evacuated by the civilian population, in addition to incursions into Israeli territory by Palestinian armed groups belonging to Hamas or Islamic Jihad.

In the space of a week, these skirmishes resulted in a dozen deaths on both sides, including four Hezbollah fighters, two civilians and a Lebanese photojournalist, Issam Abdallah, who worked for Reuters.

For its part, the Lebanese army is trying to maintain the status quo. For example, near the Palestinian camp of Bourj el-Chemali, not far from Tyre, the military defused Katyusha rockets that were to be launched against Israeli territory.

Most of the political forces in Beirut, while supporting the Palestinian struggle verbally and with demonstrations, have reservations about Lebanon's military involvement in a war with Israel.

However, they know that this decision is not up to them. Caught between the Israeli hammer and the rock of Hezbollah, they are well aware that it will be the Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei, on the advice of Hassan Nasrallah, who will decide whether the Land of Cedars will once again be destroyed in the name of a cause that goes against his own interests.

The diplomatic ballet

On the diplomatic side, Lebanon is at the center of the regional cross-dance of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdollahian. Arriving in Lebanon yesterday after stopping in Tel Aviv and Cairo, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna met with Prime Minister Nagib Mikati, the Speaker of the House Nabih Berry and the Army Commander Joseph Aoun.

The head of diplomacy in Paris strongly advised the Lebanese not to give in to a war adventure from which the Land of Cedars "will not recover", insisting on the need for "no Lebanese group" (the obvious and not even too implicit reference is to Hezbollah) takes advantage of the current situation.

However, her words were greeted with skepticism by the Lebanese, who were also outraged by the blindness of the Western powers.

In their eyes, in fact, they have not understood that although the massacres perpetrated by Hamas bear the inhuman imprint of terrorism, the terrain in which this extremism grew and was nourished can be traced back to a blind foreign policy of the Israeli right. A politics, they conclude, that knows only force, despises the rights of others and practices apartheid.