Beijing and Moscow vie for Uzbekistan
The economic dynamism of the former Soviet republic attracts the interest of China. Possible collision between Chinese and Russian interests. China's Belt and Road as a flywheel for Uzbek infrastructure. Work on the Beijing-Biškek-Taškent railway begins in September.
Moscow (AsiaNews) - An analysis published by Rosbalt.ru spells out Uzbekistan's interest in the Belt and Road Initiative, China's mega infrastructure project. Yet Tashkent has to mediate between China and Russia, raising a number of expectations and perplexities that demand serious consideration.
Uzbekistan is the most populous and dynamic country in Central Asia, heir to the ancient Timurid civilisation of Tamerlane, and in the post-Soviet phase it has always tried to preserve its independence from all Eurasian powers. Today, the Uzbeks present themselves as a regional and even global vanguard, so much so that they have announced in recent days that they have started producing 'milk against Covid-19' with antibodies from Uzbek cows and goats.
The Chinese and Russians show that they regard the country of Samarkand and Bukhara as an area under their influence, actively participating in its economic and social development, apparently without creating any kind of conflict. According to the official strategy of the 'new Uzbekistan', put forward by President Šavkat Mirziyoyev, a 60 per cent increase in per capita production, and a 40 per cent increase in industrial production, with a strong increase in the private financial sector and a reduction in the state monopoly, as well as a simplification of the tax burden, is expected by 2026.
The new scenarios related to Western sanctions, primary and secondary, have yet to be outlined. The World Bank has already introduced some corrections to the economic growth forecasts: this year it is expected to increase by 4.3% instead of 3.6%, and next year it should reach 5.3%: the most optimistic prognosis in the entire Central Asian region. Kazakhstan, for example, is given at 2% growth.
In April, Uzbekistan was the world's largest buyer of gold, raising its reserves to 8.7 tonnes, compared to Kazakhstan's 5.3 tonnes. Looking ahead, these significant increases highlight a dynamic of increasingly fierce competition between the country's partners, especially Russia and China, which in the balance of trade with Tashkent currently occupy 17.9 and 17.7 per cent respectively, both over USD 7 billion, taking into account the limits imposed by the pandemic. Foreign direct investment in the country is around billion, with China holding the largest share, followed by Russia.
Even by 2022, the Russians and Chinese are almost tied for the level of presence in the Uzbek market. As a result of the Ukrainian conflict, the activities of Russian companies excluded from the Western markets are expected to increase significantly, as the data of the past months are beginning to show. In April alone, 103 Russian companies were registered, four times more than in January and twice as many as in March, leaving China far behind.
How far the Russians will be able to expand in Uzbekistan is, however, all to be seen, due to the risks of financing projects hampered by sanctions against Russia and Belarus, and already several contracts are frozen due to payment difficulties and the complex redefinition of the banking system. Beijing remains at the window, but seems ready to take over at the appropriate time, bearing in mind the policy of 'diversification' in foreign relations on which Mirziyoyev's government is focusing, which also looks to South Asia, the Middle East, Africa and even the USA and Canada.
The trump card could be precisely the Belt and Road, repeatedly subjected to revisions and corrections, which is expected to pick up again in Uzbekistan with the large infrastructure investments also involving neighbouring Kyrgyzstan. In September, in fact, the construction of the great Beijing-Biškek-Taškent railway line will begin, costing more than 8 billion dollars and 4,380 kilometres in length, a project that has been discussed for more than 20 years and that the Chinese have been patiently waiting for, according to their customs, until the inert body of the Russian adversary slides under the eyes of their new masters.
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