Asia-Pacific: economy and security unknowns after Trump’s election
China, South Korea, Japan and the Philippines are waiting to see where US foreign policy is going. Many are also waiting to see what the president-elect will do after promising isolationism and cuts in military commitment to the region.
Beijing (AsiaNews/Agencies) – Donald Trump’s election as president of the United States raises a number of questions for a number of Asia-Pacific nations (China, North and Korea, Japan, Philippines).
Economy and security are the main ones. Many wonder if Washington will continue to play its pivotal role in containing China or gradually retrench from the Asia-Pacific region.
During his campaign, Trump tended more towards the second option. With respect to military support from South Korea (which hosts 28,000 US soldiers) and Japan, the Republican candidate said he would withdraw unless the two countries did not cover most of the costs. However, in his first steps a president-elect, he appears to be changing course.
South Korean diplomatic sources say that Trump pledged his commitment to defend South Korea under an existing security alliance during a phone call with South Korean President Park Geun-hye, including the deployment of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries. This seems to to be a response to North Korea, which yesterday called on Trump to recognise its status as a nuclear power.
Security also remain on the agenda in US-Filipino relations, following months in which President Rodrigo Duterte pursued an anti-American campaign.
Since his election, the Filipino leader has attacked outgoing US President Barack Obama, saying that he would throw the US out of his country.
Since Trump’s election, Duterte has softened his rhetoric. In congratulating the Republican candidate for his victory, he said “I don’t want to quarrel anymore, because Trump has won.”
Washington’s main relationship in Asia-Pacific is with China.
Some analysts concur that Beijing would be happy to see the United States reduce its presence in the region. This would enable it to enhance its assertiveness in the South China Sea, and give it greater influence over the economies of region’s countries.
During his campaign, Trump said that he would scrap the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which does not include China. He also championed economic isolationism, proposing a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese exports to the US and a 35 per cent penalty on US companies producing goods overseas for the domestic market.
Still, “Any type of protectionist policy pursued will be a double-edged sword,” said Ruan Zongze, a former Chinese diplomat now with the China Institute of International Studies, a think-tank affiliated with the Foreign Ministry. “I think he will be very careful about this”.
Nevertheless, the overall uncertainty caused by Trump’s election might embarrass the Chinese Communist Party, which is "obsessed" by the need for stability and prefers consistent policies.
“China hopes the United States’ future policy would be more certain because in this way, we can prepare and deal with it,” said Jia Qingguo, the dean of the School of International Relations at China’s elite Peking University.
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