As Druze lead Syria protest, Assad fears a new uprising
In As-Suwayda, hundreds of Druze, including women, protest against the economic crisis, corruption, drug trafficking, and subsidy cuts. The rallies are the most significant since the 2011 Arab Spring, but a lack of leadership undermines their prospects. Meanwhile, Syrian President Assad scraps military field courts, notorious for abuses and violations.
Milan (AsiaNews) – Hundreds of people took to the streets in recent weeks in large protest in As-Suwayd, setting off more than one alarm bell among loyalists of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
People in the Druze stronghold in southern Syria are disgruntled over the economic crisis, corruption, and subsidy cuts, turning to the streets to make their voice heard, while in Damascus the authorities are pondering whether to use force to contain the movement.
This is “the first time such a large crowd has gathered to protest against Bashar al-Assad,” a protester in al-Karama Square told AFP.
Videos on social media show images reminiscent of the first phase of the Arab Spring in 2011 in Daraa, which then spread to the rest of the country.
Today the Druze are leading the protest. With less than three per cent of Syria's pre-war population, they have largely stayed out of the conflict and the authorities have turned a blind eye on Druze draft dodgers.
However, fighting goes on elsewhere, particularly in the Kurdish province of Deir ez-Zor after the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) arrested Ahmad al-Khabil, head of the local military council accused of embezzlement, drug trafficking and collusion with the government.
Clashes are also taking place in the neighbouring province of Al-Hasakah between the Syrian army, SDF fighters and pro-Turkish rebels.
Amid the confusion and tensions, President Assad abolished military field courts, an extra-judicial body created in 1968 to suppress political dissent.
Poverty bomb
Protesters, for their part, are demanding dignity, freedom for political prisoners, and a solution to the economic crisis, which has caused more victims than the war itself. The “poverty bomb”, as the apostolic nuncio in Damascus Card Mario Zenari, is ticking.
According to the latest report from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Syria is experiencing one of the largest displacement crises in the world, with over 12 million people displaced and over 5.4 million living as refugees in neighbouring countries.
In Syria, more than 14.6 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance, with the economic situation deteriorating significantly due to the COVID-19 pandemic, devaluation of the Syrian pound, rising inflation, and hikes in fuel prices.
International sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union and the country's main oil fields controlled by US-backed Kurdish forces have contributed to frequent and prolonged power cuts.
Energy and fuel shortages are a critical issue, with consequences for heating and lighting homes as well as industrial production, food storage and cooking, all factors that feed a widespread feeling of frustration.
Many people have been left without food and basics, medicines, services and, most recently, subsidies.
The situation is disastrous. According to Human Rights Watch (HRW), about 90 per cent of the Syrian population lives below the poverty line and 12.4 million experience food insecurity.
Druze, heart of the revolt
Today the epicentre of discontent is As-Suwayda, a Druze stronghold, where thousands of residents take to the streets every day to protest against the regime and the international community, which seems to have forgotten the "Syrian question".
From there, the protest has spread to cities under government control like Aleppo, Daraa, Deir Ezzor and Jableh. Security forces have responded firing live bullets to intimidate.
Abu Ali, a 66-year-old from Daraa, says he wants to live in “dignity and freedom”. In addition, “Our first demand is to call for the release of prisoners, and reveal the fate of those forcibly disappeared.” According to the UN, about 100,000 people are still missing.
Just as Arab countries re-establish ties with the Assad regime and welcome Syria back into the Arab League, the unrest has raised new questions about the government's resilience.
Protesters’ demands include lower commodity prices, a crackdown on graft, and action against the multibillion-dollar Captagon trade that is bankrolling the Assad regime.
Concerns about the moral decay fuelled by drug trafficking have also pushed several Druze women into the streets, ready to demonstrate together with Druze armed groups.
“For Druze, preserving the social fabric is of utmost importance; it’s a red line. That is why a lot of women and religious people are protesting," said Rami Abou Diab, a doctoral student who studies the Druze, speaking to al-Monitor.
“This is about holding Bashar al-Assad and the perpetrators of all violations accountable,” Shadi al-Dubaisi, a 25-year-old protester from As-Suwayda, told Middle East Eye.
Uncertain prospects
Yet, the idea that the 2011 scenario could be repeated with mass protests and brutal repression seems a distant possibility, for now at least, given Assad's recent participation in the Arab League summit in Jeddah.
Although radicals and opponents have not ruled out a "new revolution", it is too early to say what developments this new wave of protest could generate.
"The As-Suwayda uprising and the current protest are the most important events in Syria since the 2011 revolution," said Syrian dissident Yassin al-Haj Saleh, for whom its eventual success will depend "on the emergence of an internal leader."
"Given the very high risk, the mobilisation reflects a deep sense of frustration. In addition to discontent, people take to the streets because they do not believe in a solution,” noted Jihad Yazigi, director of The Syria Report.
Then there is security, with crime and gang wars getting out of hand, as well as the campaign for the release of prisoners and information on the fate of the missing.
Against this background, the silence of the state media and the redeployment of forces in different areas to boost security, especially in Damascus, as reported by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH), are signs of possible things to come.
In fact, a feeling of fear prevails. “We paid too much in terms of blood. Seeing my city recover now seems impossible," said a resident of Homs.
Nevertheless, as Yazigi points out, As-Suwayda and Daraa "remain relatively peripheral and outside the regime’s heartland, which is represented by "Damascus and the Mediterranean coast". For Assad, the priority is "to ensure that protests do not spread to these cities."
A final point is related to the support the regime enjoys in Russia and Iran, which have committed money and resources to keeping Assad in power while no credible alternative exists for the West.
"The military and ideological fragility of Damascus is real, but it survives” thanks to the Russian-Iranian shield and the international stalemate, Yassin al-Haj Saleh, Syrian writer and dissident, told the L'Orient-Le Jour newspaper. Only time will tell "if the current protest movement turns into something bigger."
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02/05/2019 18:21
