'War between China and the US is unlikely'
For military analyst Collin Koh, greater naval presence in the Western Pacific increases the danger of “accidental” clashes, but the countries involved will not go so far as to fight a “hot” war. Any military confrontation would plunge China into potential “socioeconomic chaos”. The Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea remains the major flashpoints.
Hong Kong (AsiaNews) – War between China and the United States is not likely in the short term, even though the two powers are boosting their military deployment in East Asia’s two hottest geopolitical spots – the South China Sea and the Strait of Taiwan, this according to Collin Koh, an expert on military affairs and a research fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, who spoke to AsiaNews.
The Shandong, the first Chinese-built aircraft carrier, transited through the Taiwan Strait yesterday accompanied by four escort ships, Taiwanese authorities reported. Taiwan’s military responded by mobilising six Navy ships and eight Air Force planes to monitor the situation. For communist China, Taiwan is a “rebel” province to be retaken, by force if necessary.
The Shandong’s voyage comes four days after the US destroyer Mustin sailed through the same waters. China’s military, in a statement released by its Eastern Theatre Command, said its air and naval forces “tailed and monitored” the vessel during its passage. Last Thursday, the Pentagon announced that it was boosting the US naval presence in the Indo-Pacific to counter Beijing's “expansionist” approach.
“The military buildup by various actors could heighten the risks of accidental or inadvertent clashes in the regional flashpoints,” said the Singapore-based scholar; however, it is unclear whether the countries involved in these incidents would end up in a major “hot” war. He is inclined to believe that in the end, they will eventually choose to de-escalate the tensions.
The Taiwanese government said the Shandong was heading south. According to the South China Morning Post, satellite images show that China built a large dry dock on Hainan Island, capable of accommodating aircraft carriers even larger than two currently commissioned in the People’s Liberation Army Navy. The facility is inside a naval base on the South China Sea, where China is at odds with a number of neighbors and the United States over disputed territorial claims.
“This coming new year marks the 100th anniversary of the ruling CCP,” said Koh. “I’m not sure if a major war that’ll plunge the country into potential socioeconomic chaos” is what party leaders want. This is even less likely as the leaders try to improve their image and “burnish their credentials, “unless they’re so confident of pulling off a major military campaign to do just that.”
“While party leaders know the U.S. is now mired in the pandemic, Chinese military planners should be sober enough to know that the American military presence (in East Asia) remains a significant hindrance.”
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