Japan-Central Asia cooperation focused on business, Trans-Caspian Corridor

by Vladimir Rozanskij

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will attend the 5+1 summit in Astana (9-12 August). He will bring a substantial aid package to support the region’s development, centred on transport and energy, particularly decarbonisation. In the background is Tokyo’s difficult relationship with Moscow and Beijing.

Moscow (AsiaNews) – Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will visit the countries of Central Asia from 9 to 12 August, attending the 5+1 summit in Astana, where he will announce a substantial package of economic measures to support the development of the Central Asian region, particularly in decarbonisation.

The Japanese leader is expected to offer full support to the extension of the Trans-Caspian Corridor, a transit route that is set to become increasingly important linking Asia and Europe in the coming decades.

Japan is also trying to catch up, at least in part, with China’s huge influence in the region, and find new openings to reboot its economy.

Japan had proposed the 5+1 format in 2004, which Central Asian countries have used for negotiations with the United States and Europe, at the level of foreign ministers to achieve "human security", already included in infrastructure projects.

Back then, transport corridor projects were pursued together with the Asian Development Bank to diversify the routes that almost exclusively ran through Russia.

Eventually, Japan had to take a back seat to China and other partners due to several historical and geographical factors, but in 2015, the then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe managed to sign a series of contracts worth over US$ 18 billion during a visit, not all realised.

China, the United States, South Korea, India, Russia, the Gulf States, and Turkey have signed other agreements, indicating the rising importance of the region.

Difficult relations with Moscow and Beijing, due to geopolitical tensions caused by the war in Ukraine and related sanctions, have forced Tokyo to bet on the Trans-Caspian route while seeking other forms of cooperation, like decarbonisation.

Japan can leverage its high technological expertise, offer credits for natural gas processing, and support the development of the green economy in the Central Asian region.

Russian historian Alexander Knyazev, a member of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO),[*] believes that "Japan's interest in Central Asia is first and foremost political, to counter China's dominant role in the region."

The distance and complexity of infrastructure relations makes this competition very difficult for Japan, which must consider the interests of Russia and its Western partners. According to the Russian expert, "the pie has already been divided, and only a few crumbs are left to share".

Kazakh political scientist Dosym Satpayev told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that he believes that “Japan's presence is growing in these territories”.

Japan is becoming one of Kazakhstan's main partners in uranium mining, and INPEX, a Japanese oil company, is one of the main players in the Kashagan project, one of the most important and complex offshore oil fields, which requires major technological efforts.

In addition to gas and oil, a key role is played by critical raw materials and rare earths, essential in semiconductors, electronics, and many other innovative technological sectors.

China currently accounts for 70 per cent of rare earth output, and this worries the United States and the European Union, and Japan can offer great innovation capabilities to Central Asia in exchange for raw materials.

With respect to the Trans-Caspian Corridor, Japan has been active since in 2015 when the first agreement was inked.

Nippon Express signed a memorandum with Kazakhstan Railways in 2017 to expand transport connections and transshipment, offering to help digitise many services and modernise port facilities, a sector that is highly developed in Japan.

[*] Московский государственный институт международных отношений (МГИМО).