Youth could sway vote in South Korea’s uncertain elections

The conservative ruling party should win the majority of the 300 seats in Parliament, also helped by divisions in the opposition camp. But those under 30 are unhappy with current socio-economic situation, and according to the numbers might change the results (or at least send a strong signal) during the run-off on 13 April.

Seoul (AsiaNews) – This weekend’s parliamentary elections have resulted in a run-off on 13 April. In the varied political landscape, no one party managed to win a majority of the 300 seats in the National Assembly required for a first round victory. Members of Saenuri - the conservative ruling party - should still keep control of Parliament.

Various surveys conclude that there are two important factors in the outcome. The first is the division in the opposition camp, between liberals and democrats, which has in fact helped their rivals; the second is the "youth factor" characterized by "three nos". The reference is to a formula coined several years ago by a Korean sociologist: It means no work, no home and no marriage.

The global economic crisis of 2008 has also affected South Korea, the fourth fastest growing Asian economy, which chose to protect the established system ignoring needed structural reforms in the labor market. The unemployment rate of those under 30 is 12.5%, compared to 4.9% of the national average.

Generally the young people blame Saenuri, which targets an older electorate, and thus has failed to put in place policies aimed at improving the situation for young people. A poll by Gallup Korea shows that only 17% of under-30s has given or will give their vote to the Conservatives.

Lee Chung-hee, professor of politics at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, explains that youth frustration reflects an enormous socio-economic change: “South Koreans used to have this strong belief that no matter how bleak the situation, you could get a good job and prosper by working hard enough and trying hard enough. Now, young people realise that trying hard on your own is simply not good enough".

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