Tokyo's birth rate falls again: why Kishida's cheques are not enough

For the thirteenth year in a row, Japan has experienced a population decline. The childcare subsidies launched by the government almost a year ago do not seem to be enough. Demographer Minagawa: 'Conflict in work and family management and the pressure on motherhood in society also weigh heavily. Secularisation is also a factor: according to research by the Pew Research Center, Japanese people who pray are more likely to have children.

Tokyo (AsiaNews/Agencies) - According to the latest data published last week, as of 1 October last year the Japanese population decreased by another 595,000 units, equal to 0.48%, compared to the previous year, reaching 124,352. 000 units.

This is the 13th consecutive year of decline in the country's population, due to the growing aging of the population, the sharp decline in births and the reduction in family size.

According to estimates released by the National Population Institute of Japan, in 2050 single-person households should represent 44.3% of the 52.61 million families in Japan, of which almost half are made up of people aged 65 years or more.

It is not surprising that Japan's declining birth rate has long been put in the spotlight by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida: already in June 2023, Kishida presented a series of government measures, the cost of which was estimated at around 20 .6 billion euros, including a commitment to double spending on child care by the early 2030s and to increase the income limit for cash benefits for children. The idea is that these measures could push Japanese couples to have more children.

While they may seem generous, Kishida's birth policies fail to address the root causes that discourage Japanese people from marrying and having children: the rising cost of living, stagnating wages, and changing lifestyles. promoted by secularization and consumerism in the country.

The increase in the cost of raw materials has caused inflation to skyrocket in Japan as in other parts of the world and this has also had repercussions on the costs of childhood and education: a few months ago the Nikkei agency estimated that “The average total costs for a child receiving private education for 15 years of school, including tuition and remedial tuition fees, in Japan reached a new record of 18.4 million yen (about 111,000 EUR). Gross annual child care costs for two children in Japan already in 2021 accounted for nearly half of the income of an average couple with full-time jobs.

Kishida presented some measures to deal with inflation, such as the extension of subsidies for gasoline and public services until spring 2024 and the possibility of reducing income taxes. But critics say he is merely addressing the symptoms of the problem, rather than solving Japan's long-standing wage stagnation problem: According to the 2022 wage census, men's average monthly wage has increased just 6% since 1995 .

Professor Yuka Minagawa, a social demographer at Sophia University in Tokyo, in an interview with Foreign Policy magazine assessed reactions to child care allowances on several blogs and online discussion forums in which Japanese mothers talked about their their experiences.

"So far - he says - I have not found a single post that indicated the amount of family allowances as a source of difficulty. Instead, the recurring themes include the lack of shared responsibility between men and women in caring for children and domestic work, the pressure and conflict in managing work and family and the stress due to the high standards of motherhood in society. It is difficult to imagine - he concludes - that a monthly allowance for children in the amount of 15,000 yen (about 90 euros) could alter the reproductive decisions of future parents".

But it is above all the change in lifestyles, with the increase in the number of women working rather than getting married and raising children at home, that contributes to the decline in births when it is not accompanied by adequate social policies.

According to a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center between June 2 and September 17, 2023 and released on April 3, fewer than 30% of people in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam say women have the obligation society of having children. Japan ranked first in the survey, with 79% of respondents saying women are free to choose their preferences on the topic.

The same survey highlighted the role of religion and prayer in influencing respondents' views on having children. Adults in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan who pray daily are "somewhat more likely than those who pray less often to say that having children is one of women's duties."

In light of these trends, the Kishida government's natalist policies, however well intentioned, appear far from an effective path to solving a problem deeply rooted in Japanese society today.