The US presidential election and the absence of the ‘China card’ from the electoral debate
Trump shows a more aggressive and isolationist approach, Harris is more prudent and inclined to stability. Towards Beijing, a desire to protect national interests prevails on the US side. Over the years, China has softened the tone of ‘wolf-warrior diplomacy’. And it is looking ahead to the 5 November vote without officially exposing itself, although it seems to be betting on the Democratic candidate.
Milan (AsiaNews) - The US presidential elections are just a few days away, and while the confrontation between the two candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continues, one issue stands out for its virtual absence from the electoral debate: that of relations with Beijing. The ‘China card’, always played to criticise the management of US-China bilateral relations and discredit the opponent in power, seems to have lost its effectiveness compared to previous elections. Questioning the reasons for China's lack of involvement in the political discourse ahead of the vote is The Diplomat magazine, which in a recent article attributes the cause to the emergence of two new circumstances.
Firstly, during Joe Biden's tenure in the White House, bilateral relations between the US and China are said to have reached a state of stability, despite the persistence of serious differences on issues such as Taiwan, the South China Sea, and other economic problems. Thanks to his decades of experience in foreign policy, the incumbent president has been able to make decisions that please both national and international interests and avoid causing serious rifts with his Asian rival.
Indeed, Biden has maintained the tariffs on Chinese imports established by his predecessor, intensified measures to counter the dragon's technological development in favour of the domestic one, and strengthened the US presence in the Indo-Pacific in an attempt to contain Chinese assertiveness in the region. At the same time, however, he managed to mitigate hostilities by abandoning the dreaded Trumpian strategy of ‘de-coupling’ the US economy from the Chinese economy in favour of a more prudent policy of ‘de-risking’, with the aim of limiting dependence on China, without drastically interrupting trade agreements.
According to the magazine's experts, Trump would have no good reason to criticise the ruling faction's handling of relations with Beijing. Moreover, Vice-President Harris, as a candidate for the Democratic Party, has the advantage of inheriting Biden's work and aligning herself with his successes, distancing herself from what are considered his failures.
Foreign policy issues, moreover, seem to have taken a back seat to the more preeminent domestic issues and domestic controversies, including galloping inflation, slowing economic growth, abortion rights, and the investigations against the tycoon. This is the other reason why, again according to The Diplomat, the ‘Chinese card’ would not be so attractive to either side in this election cycle. Although the 118th US Congress, which took office in January 2023, has introduced more China-related bills than in the past, these have mostly been evaluated from the perspective of domestic benefits and economic competitiveness. Whether it is the ban on TikTok, a social network that is also popular among American users, or the blocking of tax incentives for Chinese battery companies such as Gotion, decisions involving Beijing are increasingly driven by the intention to protect US interests first and foremost.
On the other hand, the People's Republic has also softened the tone of its ‘warrior wolf diplomacy’ (zhan lang waijiao), making efforts to recover relations with the US. This is demonstrated by the recent release of American pastor David Lin, who was arrested in Beijing in 2006 on charges of contract fraud.
Only after 5 November will we know whether Trump's more aggressive and isolationist approach to the Dragon will prevail or Harris' more cautious and stability-oriented one. Until then, unless something significant happens, the ‘Chinese card’ will predictably continue to play a marginal role in the electoral confrontation.
In the meantime, the Chinese government, although preferring not to expose itself officially on the US presidential election, seems to have already made its choice, hinting that it has more sympathy for the Democratic nominee.
In a rare comment made to the BBC Jia Qingguo, a member of the Standing Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, said: ‘I would prefer Harris because of the bad experience with Trump. We do not want a repeat of it'. Indeed, during the latter's presidency, relations between the two countries have been very tense, worsening dramatically after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Moreover, in the event of an electoral victory, Trump has already threatened to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese products, a decision that could have serious consequences for the dragon's economy.
With Harris in the White House, on the other hand, a scenario of greater stability in bilateral relations is on the horizon, following in the footsteps of Biden. In this regard, Zhu Junwei, director of the Centre for American Studies at the Grandview Institution think tank in Beijing, says: ‘It is a common view among Chinese experts that Harris means more continuity, at least in the first one or two years of his presidency’, adding that ‘at the same time, Trump represents a wider range of possibilities, better or worse, with many surprises and potentially more problems for China, the US itself and its allies, and even the world’.
Zhu's remarks are also shared by Chen Dongxiao, president of the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, who says it is widely believed in China that ‘the second Trump administration would likely bring greater uncertainty, instability and unpredictability than a Kamala Harris presidency’.
There is also another reason why Harris is Beijing's favourite: her choice of current Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as a candidate for US vice-president. The politician's background as an English teacher at a high school in Foshan, Guangdong, and his profound knowledge of China make him a figure much appreciated by Chinese public opinion and bode well for the future of diplomatic relations between the two countries. On the other hand, however, Walz's connection with the dragon has also earned him criticism from Republicans, who have accused him of being too lenient towards China, labelling him a ‘pro-China Marxist’.
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