by Fady Noun

The current crisis could have three outcomes: the emergence of a Kurdish entity, the creation of a Sunni region in Iraq and the weakening of ties with Tehran. Israel backs an independent Kurdish, something to which Washington is not opposed. Iraqi leaders are faced with the dilemma of bringing Sunnis into a coalition government to foster reconciliation.

Beirut (AsiaNews) - As uncertainty continues to hover over the Iraqi crisis, the political situation in northern Iraq seems to reflect, according to a Lebanese researcher in Paris, actions by regional and Western forces that are leading into the following direction:

1) The creation of a sovereign and independent Kurdistan (on territory that was once part of Iraq), more powerful since it can count on Kirkuk and its oil revenues. The core of this Kurdistan began when US President George Bush, the father, imposed a no-flight zone to protect a Kurdish region between Erbil and Sulaymaniyah. The creation of such a region led to the forced reconciliation between the two main Iraqi Kurdish parties, Barzani's KDP and Talabani's PUK, who had previously been long-time foes.

The establishment of a Kurdish entity based on this model would fulfil the desires of modern Israel's founding fathers, Ben Gurion or Moshe Sharrett who, in a letter in 1950s published by Le Monde Diplomatique 20 years ago, wrote about the need of dividing Iraq as it existed, because it was the only Arab country that combined three strengths, namely population, oil and water, enough to develop an advanced industrial and technological base.

In any case, Israel is in favour of Kurdistan as it currently is. So is the United States although Washington cannot publicly support its demand for independence whilst supporting Iraq's central government under Nouri al-Maliki. Kurdish claims will eventually be fulfilled according to an agenda that meets Kurdish demands first.

2) The creation of a Sunni region in Iraq will physically separate Tehran and Baghdad from Damascus and Beirut whilst creating a direct link between Turkey and Sunni Arab states (Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries).

Such a possibility raises however two basic questions. First, who would ultimately lead the Sunni part of Iraq? An alliance of tribes? The Islamic State? Former Baath Party officials led by Izzat al-Douri, vice president under Saddam Hussein? What role will these groups play, if any? Second, will Turkey seize Iraq's northern territories, taking advantage of the confusion? Will it annex the Mosul region with its oil, already an existing bone of contention?

3) In the meantime, what is certain is that the creation of a Sunni area in Iraq would remove Iran from the landscape of the Middle East. The elimination or "dilution" (i.e. weakening) of the Maliki government would prevent the creation of a Shia Iraq close to Iran . . . The oil reserves of a Shia Iraq's, plus those in Iran, would create a hydrocarbons giant. This is why Washington wants al-Maliki removed, or at least constrained by a "coalition government" whose aim would be to reconcile Iraq's many components.

• lebanon
• iraq
• kurdistan
• geopolitical
• scenarios