From Saddam to Assad, the collapse of regimes and the danger of an ‘Iraqisation’ in Syria
In an exclusive sit down with AsiaNews, Prof. Saad Salloum draws a parallel between the overthrow of the Rais in Iraq and the flight of the Syrian dictator. In both cases it took 13 years for their ouster to ‘drain’ the resources around the leader. Baghdad must ‘take tangible measures to ensure the recovery of the new Syria’ starting with the fight against drugs. Limit the role of Turkey and Iran, set up a reconstruction fund.
Milan (AsiaNews) - ‘There has always been talk of the “Lebanonisation” of Iraq after the American invasion in 2003. Now we hope that Syria will not undergo an ‘Iraqiisation’, that is, that the Iraqi example will not determine the future of Syria. That is why, today, the Syrians should avoid [making] the same mistakes,' observes Saad Salloum, journalist and associate professor of political science at al-Mustanṣiriyya University in Baghdad, one of the capital's most prestigious universities, and a profound connoisseur of the Middle East region, draws a parallel between the fall of the Iraqi and Syrian regimes.
‘The repetition of the Iraqi scenario,’ the scholar explains to AsiaNews, 'is evident in the following example: the decision to overthrow Saddam Hussein was taken in 1990, but the regime did not fall until 2003, that is, 13 years later. This is the same period that was used with Bashar al-Assad, after the decision to remove him from power in 2011'.
In this regard, he recalls a saying used by then White House tenant George H.W. Bush which, he points out, ‘may explain the repetition of this time lapse: when asked in 1991 [during the first Gulf War] how he had ended Saddam's rule, [the US president] replied: “I see him like a fish in water; I don't catch him, but I drain the water around him and he dies!”’ Thus, a timeframe of ‘13 years’ aimed at ‘drying up any regime’, he concludes, is ‘sufficient’ for its downfall ‘without the need to think of any factor that presses the end button’.
The fall of Assad
‘The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria,’ the scholar points out, ‘revealed a flaw in the Iraqi government's vision. A confusion in its calculations and a clear subservience to external projects that have no connection with national interests' but rather with those of other actors, regional and otherwise, from Moscow to Tehran to Washington.
‘This collapse,’ he adds, ’has highlighted a short-sightedness and lack of awareness of the geopolitical, cultural and demographic interconnections that have characterised relations between the two countries throughout history.
The confusion allegedly began ‘when the camps in Latakia became strongholds for recruiting terrorists and sending car bombs towards Iraq. Moreover, in 2009 Baghdad filed a complaint against Damascus,' he recalls, “for its involvement in the attack on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs”.
Subsequently, there was ‘an unusual action by the Iraqi government, which suddenly forgot these violations,’ he continues, ‘and sided completely with the (former) Syrian regime.
Turning a blind eye to the presence of Iraqi armed groups that have been defending that regime since 2011, and placing the entire political weight of Iraq in the hands of the regime, without considering the likelihood of the fall or rise of the opposition, and without paying attention to the suffering of the Syrian people. This has led,' the reasoning concludes, “to a significant gap in relations between the two countries, as the Iraqi government has shown no desire to coordinate with the Syrian opposition factions, or even with the tribes close to the border strip”.
A new vision
The Baghdad government has overlooked ‘fundamental differences’ between the two systems ‘from a political and ideological point of view’, the scholar continues. While the Iraqi system is based on a constitution ‘that guarantees political pluralism, public freedoms, elections and the peaceful transfer of power’, the Syrian system is based on an ‘individual and totalitarian regime that kills and imprisons opponents in broad daylight’. Hence the criticism of the leadership which, he explains, ‘if it had sufficient wisdom’ should have welcomed and supported ‘any alternative to the Assad regime’ because, whatever the form, it would have been ‘closer to the structure of the Iraqi system’.
Otherwise, it pursued the choice of ‘siding with an authoritarian and corrupt regime’. ‘To overcome this accumulation of errors, turn the page on the past and realise a new vision that balances the interests of Iraq and Syria,’ says Salloum, Baghdad must “take tangible measures to ensure the recovery of the new Syria”. The call, he continues, is to ‘cut off any avenue that leads to increasing dependence on the drug trade, which is estimated to make up 50 per cent of Syria's gross domestic product (GDP)’.
In this regard, Saad Salloum - already the first Muslim to win the Zêd Foundation Award for Human Solidarity, a prize awarded to personalities who have distinguished themselves in the field of the protection of rights and freedoms - summarises in a few points the basis for ‘building bridges of trust’ with the Syrian people: firstly, the distribution of urgent humanitarian aid in the form of food and medicine by land, acting as a ‘launching point’ for basic necessities; sending Iraqi Civil Defence teams to ‘save lives’ in a situation of chaos linked to political changes or to help open regime prisons such as Sednaya; providing support ‘in the field of fuels and energy’ as Iraq does for Lebanon and Jordan and, at a later stage, re-launching the Kirkuk-Banias oil pipeline; an ‘inclusive’ Iraqi political initiative to bring the Syrian factions in Baghdad together under the umbrella of Arab neighbours, contributing to the reconciliation of the parties and limiting the role of Turkey and Iran; launching a ‘Syria reconstruction fund’.
Balance of power
This is not an easy task, because Iraq itself has to cope with Tehran's growing influence in domestic politics, thanks also to the presence of militias - some of which also call themselves ‘Christian’, such as those linked to the self-styled leader 'Rayan the Chaldean ’ - in the territory.
Over the past two decades, in fact, Iraq has been transformed from an enemy into a crucial strategic location for Tehran's regional ambitions, with Baghdad constituting one of the main centres of the so-called Axis of Resistance, as well as influencing internal conflicts and opposition to the United States. Iranian officials have pursued a complex strategy, including supporting Shia militia groups, building strong relationships with Iraqi political leaders, and shaping cultural and social aspects.
Some Pasdaran (Irgc) commanders have referred to the neighbour as ‘one of Iran's provinces’ and the Islamic Republic itself is now concerned about developments within the country. Now the Syrian experience - with the fall of Bashar al-Assad representing a painful and strategic blow for Tehran - looms over Iraq, and the long formation of Shia militias and the sale of weapons and hardware to Baghdad, worth almost 10 billion dollars, may be of little use.
‘The issue of change in Iraq,’ notes Saad Salloum, ’has become a significant part of the discussions, based on the transformations in the region and the resulting changes in so-called Iranian influence, especially after what happened in Lebanon and Syria.
‘The potential threat,’ he continues, ’is not the result of external action, but rather the product of the upheaval in the balance of power across the entire region. The Iraqi political system that was formed in 2003 is now just an empty form and the balance of power has become the main element of government. And when there is a change in the balance at the regional level, the change will inevitably have repercussions [also] in Iraq'.
What has happened in Syria, the scholar concludes, added to the ‘pressure that Iran may face with the arrival of the Republican American administration and the prospect of Iranian influence reaching the militias in Iraq’ are all factors that will determine the future picture.
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