French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian resumes his ‘mission impossible' next week
Attempts to solve Lebanon’s stalled presidential election are underway both domestically and internationally. The Group of Five (France, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt) will meet on Monday in the Qatari capital. Christian parties still reject Suleiman Frangieh, the candidate backed by the heavily armed Hezbollah.
Beirut (AsiaNews) – The countdown has begun for the return to Beirut of President Macron's special envoy for Lebanon, former French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian.
A preliminary meeting to prepare his return, probably on 17 July, is scheduled for next Monday in Doha (Qatar), where delegates from the group of five countries engaged in finding a political solution to the presidential crisis will meet.
On 6 February 2023, diplomats from the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar met for the first time in Paris to start a concerted action to end the vacancy at the top of the Lebanese state.
French newspaper Le Monde reports, however, that, “neither the Americans nor the Saudis are really involved, which leaves France in the front line, despite questions about its initial choice, Suleiman Frangieh, Hezbollah’s candidate. Qatar has so far tried unsuccessfully to impose the Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces, General Joseph Aoun."
Le Drian’s return to the region would come three weeks after the start of a first visit on 21 June, during which he met with almost all of Lebanon's political, military and religious leaders, as well as representatives of civil society groups.
Observers expect that he will return several times before presenting his proposals to Mr Macron, at the end of a mission that seems "almost impossible", according to French media.
The French diplomat was in Saudi Arabia on Monday, where he discussed the results of his exploratory mission in Lebanon with Saudi government adviser Nizar al-Aloula, who is in charge of the Lebanese file.
In Lebanon, the stalemate is total in the absence of a qualified majority in parliament, as evidenced by 12 failed votes since last November to pick a president.
Hezbollah, which supports the northern leader Suleiman Frangieh, has refused any candidate who questions the military power it has acquired over the decades on Arab battlefields (Syria, Yemen, Iraq).
For their part, the forces hostile to Hezbollah’s parallel army refuse to allow it to impose its will on them. After endorsing one of their own, MP Michel Moawad, they now support former Finance Minister Jihad Azour, a senior IMF official.
However, Hezbollah and its allies have blocked voting by systematically preventing a quorum before the second round of voting. They did so again on 14 June, when, according to Samir Geagea, Mr Azour, who had 59 votes in the first round, could easily have been elected in the second round by 65 votes, getting six additional votes.
France hopes that, by the end of the summer, a solution will emerge, considering it urgent to unblock the situation in order to start the reforms needed to contain the country’s financial crisis, form a new government, and prevent the presidential vacancy from complicating the succession of the governor of the Bank of Lebanon, Riad Salameh, whose mandate expires at the end of July, and that of the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces, General Joseph Aoun, in November.
The Lebanese Forces (LF) party is currently hostile to French efforts, which it has criticised for backing, behind the scenes since February, the candidacy of Hezbollah’s man, Suleiman Frangieh. Seen from Paris as "pragmatic", the choice of this establishment figure for the presidency and a reformer for prime minister, is deemed an “interference” by the LF.
For its part, as Le Drian’s return approaches, the head of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), Gebran Bassil, said: "We have resumed dialogue with Hezbollah with a view to a solution without preconditions". Yet, his party, like the LF, still prefers Mr Azour.
Meanwhile, Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rahi is closely monitoring diplomatic and domestic developments, steadfast in his support for an international conference that would declare Lebanon's neutrality.
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