China’s emissions drop as renewables grow, but coal remains
For the first time since post-COVID reopening, emissions fell in March by 3 per cent. Stabilised thanks to increased solar and wind power generation, they fell by 8 per cent in the steel industry and 22 per cent in construction. Still, several coal powered plants are in the planning stage.
Beijing (AsiaNews) – China’s development of green, sustainable energy is full of lights and shadows in terms of the environment.
A new study found that China's carbon dioxide emissions fell last March for the first time since the reopening of the economy after the government imposed lockdowns and restrictions to counter the COVID-19 pandemic.
For experts, this is a major development suggesting that, among the world’s main polluting countries, China has reached a peak, partly thanks to greater renewable energy capacity. Yet, investments in coal remain a stain on the future in terms of carbon emissions.
According to an analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder and senior analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, China's drop two months ago is the result of expanding renewable capacity, covering almost all areas in power demand, combined with a significant decline in construction activity.
If renewables capacity continues to grow at record levels, China's emissions may have peaked in 2023.
In an article published in Carbon Brief, the scholar notes that official data suggest that China's carbon dioxide emissions fell by 3 per cent in March 2024 over the previous year.
On a quarterly basis, the value remains still higher than in 2023, but this is linked to the months of January and February 2024 compared to the still sluggish period following the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions in December 2022.
March, writes Myllyvirta, is “the first month to give a clear indication of the emissions trends after the rebound”. While it is a single result, it follows last year's projections and suggests key trends.
Emissions from the power industry stabilised thanks to increased solar and wind power generation, while emissions from the steel industry and cement fell 8 and 22 per cent respectively from a year earlier. This reflects a slowdown in the real estate sector that is likely to continue.
Meanwhile, the growing popularity of electric vehicles is cutting into the demand for oil, with electric vehicles now accounting for just over 10 per cent of total vehicles on the road, up from 7 per cent last year based on sales figures.
At the same time, the overall demand for electricity is growing, notes the expert, due to the increase in domestic consumption linked to the purchase of air conditioners, with 90 per cent of the additional demand in March covered by renewable sources.
Much of the renewables are in the form of small-scale solar energy, which contributes significantly to growth.
In the first quarter of the year, solar and wind power installations increased by 40 per cent, although access to the grid continues to be limited.
This is why wind and solar still account for only 15 per cent of China's electricity generation, even as authorities are moving to better integrate renewables into the grid.
Still, China's path on emissions remains uncertain, with differing views on growth or slowdown in renewables.
In addition, government targets for GDP growth and carbon intensity – emissions generated per unit of GDP – suggest that Beijing may still be heading towards greater emissions.
China in fact continues to invest in coal. Although production capacity growth slowed slightly in the first quarter of 2024, a significant number of power plants are still in the planning stage.
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