As people in Delhi get ready to vote, the AAP and BJP rivalry heats up
The two main parties are using the same tactic of handing out subsidies to attract the poorest voters. In recent years, support for Prime Minister Modi's party has grown, but several uncertainties remain. Voting takes place on 5 February with results on 8 February.
New Delhi (AsiaNews) – The electoral race for the Delhi Legislative Assembly is getting tighter. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which last year won state elections in Maharashtra and Haryana, is now trying to win back the National Capital Territory (NCT) after 30 years of opposition rule.
The BJP’s main adversary is the Aam Aadmi Party[*] (AAP), led by Arvind Kejriwal, at the helm of the NCT since 2013. Kejriwal, who resigned as chief minister in September due to legal issues that led to his arrest in March, now seems ready to take up the post again.
Some 15.5 million people are eligible to vote on 5 February to elect the 70 members of the NCT Legislative Assembly.
Administratively, Delhi is a Union territory that includes the Indian capital, New Delhi, run by both levels of government, such as policing and other administrative matters. In the 2020 elections, the AAP won 62 seats, while the others went to the BJP. Now it is seeking a third term.
Over the past decade, the AAP has provided free water and electricity to Delhi property owners, pledging to extend the measure to all residents, especially the poorest who usually rent.
The BJP has decided to follow this approach with its leaders issuing scores of statements promising free education for needy students, monthly subsidies of 2,500 rupees (US$ 29) for poor women, 21,000 rupees for pregnant women, a monthly pension of 2,500 rupees for the elderly, subsidies for cooking gas and so on.
The AAP, which has accused the BJP of proposing a poor replica of Arvind Kejriwal's strategy of direct aid to the poor, responded by proposing free bus travel and discounts on metro fares for students, a subsidy of 2,100 rupees for women, free medical care for the elderly, expenses for the education of Dalits abroad, 18,000 rupees a month for Hindu and Sikh priests, free uniforms for rickshaw drivers and marriage dowries for their daughters paid for by the government.
To cover all these promises, the Delhi government would spend about 63 billion rupees (8 million) in the current fiscal year, more than 8 per cent of its outlay. If the parties came through with their promises, subsidies would represent 20 per cent of the territory's budget, according to Reuters.
Yet, it was precisely these policies that allowed the BJP to hold onto Maharashtra and Haryana, despite high levels of state debt. In Delhi, the latest surveys, notoriously unreliable in India, see the BJP trail the AAP.
For its part, the Reserve Bank of India warned in December that cash handouts to voters come at the expense of structural social and economic reforms.
Thus far, Rahul Gandhi, leader of the Indian National Congress (INC), has remained on the sidelines in the public debate, but recently said that, “There is no difference" between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal because both make "false promises".
“Do you remember how Delhi was when Kejriwal came to power?” Gandhi asked on the campaign trail. “He said he’ll remove corruption. But what has actually happened? Pollution and inflation have kept increasing.”
In last summer's Lok Sabha[†] election, the AAP and the INC ran together with INDIA,[‡] an alliance of several parties led by the INC. However, they lost all seven New Delhi Lok Sabha seats, which went to the BJP, and are now running separately.
The INC’s promises mirror those of the other two parties, with the addition of a caste census and an unemployment benefit of 8,500 rupees, to compensate for poor job creation in Delhi.
Several observers have pointed out that the AAP continues to be the most popular party among the poor despite losing support among them. The rich and the middle class have so far been very critical of Kejriwal.
As Delhi’s population is still very poor, and the NCT has seen an influx of Muslim migrants in recent years, the BJP's incredible rise in popularity, fuelled by AAP corruption and Hindu supremacist ideas, may not be enough for victory.
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[*] Common Man’s Party.
[†] Lower house of the Indian Parliament.
[‡] Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance.
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